Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 92, NWS Grand Forks, ND
NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 2, 2003, 2:29 PM CDT for Lake of the Woods County, Roseau County, Minnesota. It was in force for 61 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 2, 2003, 2:29 PM CDT (19:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 2, 2003, 3:30 PM CDT
- In force
- 61 min
- Issued by
- NWS Grand Forks, ND
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
The radar
The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 203 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:29 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The watch it was issued in
The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.
| Issued | Product | Office | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 11:20 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | 6 hr |
The nearest sounding before it
International Fa, MN (KINL), launched 12:00Z, 7.5 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 774 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -221 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 740 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 98 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 182 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 3.8
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WUUS53 KFGF 021929 SVRFGF MNC077-135-022030- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 228 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... LAKE OF THE WOODS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND EASTERN ROSEAU COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. * UNTIL 330 PM CDT. * AT 224 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM NEAR ROSEAU...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 45 MPH. THIS THUNDERSTORM HAS A LONG HISTORY OF PRODUCING WIND DAMAGE. WIND GUSTS TO 52 MPH WAS REPORTED BY AUTOMATED EQUIPMENT NEAR BADGER. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... PENCER AT 230 PM... SALOL AT 235 PM... WARROAD AT 250 PM... SWIFT AT 255 PM AND BAUDETTE AT 320 PM REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. LAT...LON 4890 9589 4863 9574 4866 9469 4909 9485 $$ DTR/06
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 2, 2:20 PM CDT, 9 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 2, 2:20 PM CDT, 9 minutes before
FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND 220 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003 ...FORECAST CHALLENGE FOR UPDATE CONCERNS EARLY CONVECTIVE THREAT AND TEMPERATURES. SLIGHT TIMING DIFFERENCES NEXT 18 HOURS WITH FROPA OTHERWISE MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT. CURRENT SEVERE CONVECTION PROPAGATING EASTWARD INTO WESTERN MN. WILL MAINTAIN EVENING MENTION WESTERN AREAS BASED ON LDS HITS OVER CENTRAL ND. FARTHER EAST WILL CONTINUE SEVERE THREAT WITH HEAVY RAIN INTO EVENING. RUC MAINTAINS HIGH DEWPOINTS OVER ALL BUT FAR NW MOST OF NIGHT. AS A RESULT WILL AGAIN SEE MILD MINIMUMS. FOR THURSDAY MAIN BOUNDARY PUSHES EAST OF FA IN EARLY AM. BOTH ETA/GFS SWINGING ANOTHER WAVE THROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH JET MAX AND PAINTING QPF ACROSS FA. AIRMASS REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE WITH SUFFICIENT CAPE AND INSTABILITY. SURFACE BOUNDARIES NOT IMPRESSIVE AND REGION DOES NOT SEEM IN FAVORABLE POSITION WITH JET ORIENTATION. HOWEVER...CONSIDERING AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND POTENTIAL FOR RESIDUAL BOUNDARIES AS A RESULT OF CURRENT CONVECTION WILL NEED TO INTRODUCE SOME MENTION OF CONVECTION. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT COOL ALL THAT MUCH SO SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ABOVE AVERAGE DAY TEMP WISE. COLUMN BEGINS TO DRY OUT OVERNIGHT THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY IN TIME FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. COLUMN CONTINUES TO COOL SLIGHTLY HOWEVER PLENTY OF SOLAR EXPECTED. NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT AND WILL FOLLLOW. SURFACE LOW ORGANIZES OVER NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AS NEXT WAVE OVER PAC NW APPROACHES. WITH BOUNDARY INTO WESTERN DAKOTAS WOULD NOT EXPECT ANY PCPN INTO THE REGION DURING DAY SO WILL LEAVE DRY. .EXTENDED...ZONAL FLOW EARLY ON TRANSITIONS TO A SLIGHT BUILDING RIDGE BY LATE. STRONGEST VORTICITY MAX DROPS THRU THE FLOW ON SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDER. THIS ALREADY MENTIONED IN ZONES. CYCLONIC FLOW LOOKS TO REMAIN BEST NORTH OF THE BORDER INTO TUE...BUT WITH HIGH BUILDING IN WILL KEEP REST OF FORECAST DRY. GFS PAINTING OUT SOME WARM FRONTAL PCPN LATE WED BUT PLENTY OF TIME TO WATCH. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL EARLY THEN WARM A BIT LATE. .FGF...NONE. VOELKER/GODON
Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 2, 6:35 AM CDT, 7 hours 54 minutes before
MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024- 026>030-038-039-049-052>054-021415- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS 635 AM CDT WED JUL 2 2003 ...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY RAINS. DUE TO THE EXTREME INSTABILITY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION ISOLATED TORNADOES AND SIGNIFICANT STRAIGHT LINE WIND DAMAGE (LARGE BOW ECHO) CANNOT BE RULED OUT. EXPECT RAPID SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR ALONG A DEVILS LAKE TO VALLEY CITY LINE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND THEN WORK EAST ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THIS EVENING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA THURSDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM CHANCES LOOM ON TO CLOSE OUT THE JULY FOURTH WEEKEND ON SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BERG
In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 2, 1:21 PM CDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
121 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
1216 PM DAHLEN ND WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03 NELSON LARGE 4 TO 6 INCH TREE
BRANCHES DOWN. REPORTED BY
TRAINED SPOTTER.
DPORTERLocal storm report, Jul 2, 1:32 PM CDT, 57 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
132 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
1255 PM 9 NNW GRAFTON ND WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03 WALSH SHINGLES BLOWN OFF ROOF.
REPORTED BY TRAINED
SPOTTER.
DPORTERLocal storm report, Jul 2, 1:37 PM CDT, 52 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
137 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0110 PM DONALDSON MN 61 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03 KITTSON REPORTED BY RWIS
OBSERVATION.
DPORTERLocal storm report, Jul 2, 2:06 PM CDT, 23 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
206 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0157 PM MERRIFIELD ND E65 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03 ESTIMATED 65 MPH WINDS.
REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
0159 PM GRAND FORKS ND .75 INCH HAIL
07/02/03 GRAND FORKS REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
DPORTERLocal storm report, Jul 2, 2:07 PM CDT, 22 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
207 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0157 PM MERRIFIELD ND E65 MPH WIND GUST
07/02/03 ESTIMATED 65 MPH WINDS.
REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
0159 PM GRAND FORKS ND .75 INCH HAIL
07/02/03 GRAND FORKS REPORTED BY LAW
ENFORCEMENT.
DPORTERLocal storm report, Jul 2, 2:15 PM CDT, 14 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
215 PM CDT WED JUL 2 2003
TIME(CDT) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0115 PM PEMBINA ND WIND DAMAGE
07/02/03 PEMBINA 3 TO 4 INCH TREE BRANCHES
DOWN.
DPORTERThe office that day
Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 2, 1:00 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Kittson, Marshall, Polk | 45 min |
| Jul 2, 1:32 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Polk | 43 min |
| Jul 2, 1:46 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Kittson, Roseau | 44 min |
| Jul 2, 2:13 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Pennington, Polk, Red Lake | 47 min |
| Jul 2, 2:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Norman | 38 min |
| Jul 2, 3:16 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Beltrami, Clearwater, Hubbard | 59 min |
| Jul 2, 3:39 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker | 51 min |
| Jul 2, 4:15 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Hubbard | 45 min |
| Jul 2, 4:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker | 48 min |
| Jul 2, 5:44 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGF | Becker, Hubbard | 61 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2003Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.