Severe Thunderstorm Warning 269, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
400 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2003

.OVERVIEW...
SOUTHERLY FLOW OUT AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS LA/AR AREA
PROVIDING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE TO THE REGION.  BACKDOOR WEDGE FRONT
WITH EASTERN COASTAL SURFACE HIGH ALONG WITH ADVANCING OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY ACROSS AL FROM SURFACE LOW SHOULD PROVIDE AMPLE TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS GA THIS EVENING.

.SHORT TERM...
SEVERAL ISSUES OF CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. TORNADO WATCH
CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH AND EAST GA. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM AL
CONTINUES SLOW MARCH EASTWARD.  WEAKENING SHOULD CONTINUE AS PUSHES
AWAY FROM UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT...HOWEVER...SHOULD PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
SURFACE OUTFLOW THAT MAY SUPPORT CLUSTER CELL DEVELOPMENT THIS LATE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS BOUNDARIES PUSH INTO HIGHLY UNSTABLE MOIST
AIR. ADDITIONAL BACKDOOR FRONT EAST OF MCN TO ATL NORTH WILL ACT AS
ANOTHER TRIGGER FOR DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING EVIDENT IN LATEST RADAR
IMAGERY.  WEDGE FRONT AIDING IN EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW INCREASING
HELICITIES AND THUS SUPPORTING ROTATION IN THOSE STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR REGION...RESULTING IN TORNADO WATCH.
SECONDARY CONCERN WILL BE NEED FOR FLOOD WATCH AND WILL MONITOR THIS
CLOSELY INTO LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  WITH VERY MOIST
SOILS FROM PAST TWO WEEKS...ANY ORGANIZED CONVECTION MAY POSE WIDER
SCALE FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND NEED FOR WATCH MAY OCCUR.

OVERALL...CONVECTIVE MESOSCALE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY
AS MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS WITH WEAK SHEARED UPPER ENERGY.
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AXIS AT THIS TIME APPEARS TO BE ALONG A LINE
FROM SOUTH OF ATL TO CSG SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  WITH HIGH PW NEAR 2 INCH
WILL CONTINUE CLOSE MONITOR OF FLASH FLOOD THREAT ON SUNDAY.

.EXTENDED...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR MASS PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNTIL
CANADIAN HIGH SWEEPS INTO REGION LATE TUESDAY.  AS IT APPEARS
NOW...THIS WILL BRING DRY WEATHER INTO THE FIRST PART OF THE
MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

KATL 67 81 65 79 / 60 50 50 40
KAHN 64 79 64 77 / 60 50 50 40
KGVL 64 77 62 74 / 60 50 50 40
KRMG 67 82 64 81 / 60 50 50 40
KCSG 70 87 68 85 / 50 40 50 40
KMCN 68 86 67 83 / 50 40 50 40

.ATL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT FOR N AND NE GA.

JCD

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-171830-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1055 AM EDT SAT MAY 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NORTH GEORGIA THIS
EVENING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR REMAINS OVER
THE STATE.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE MOST
LIKELY TIME FOR STORMS WILL BE FROM NOON UNTIL 7 PM. THE GREATEST
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE NORTH OF A LINE FROM COLUMBUS TO
MACON AND WEST OF A LINE FROM MACON TO CUMMING TO BLUE RIDGE.
HOWEVER THE REMAINDER OF NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA OUTSIDE THIS AREA
COULD SEE POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

.DISCUSSION...
VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS IN PLACE OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA. CAPES
ARE BETWEEN 2000 AND 2500 WITH LIFTED INDICES BETWEEN MINUS 5 AND
MINUS 7. A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH DEVELOPED DURING THE
NIGHT ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS MOVING EASTWARD. THIS COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE APPROACHING THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF THE
STATE SHORTLY AFTER NOON AND THEN MOVE ACROSS NORTH GEORGIA BY MID
AFTERNOON AND INTO CENTRAL GEORGIA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING. EVEN IF THIS COMPLEX WEAKENS...OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM THIS
COMPLEX WILL LIKELY TRIGGER THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA. STRONG
DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AND WITH RELATIVELY COLD AIR ALOFT...
LARGE HAIL IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY. BY 7 PM MOST OF THE AREA SHOULD
BECOME MORE STABLE AS RAIN COOLED AIR PREDOMINATES.

.FOR SPOTTERS...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD MONITOR
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND BE READY FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...EXCEPT THURSDAY.

FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

GAZ021-033-172115-

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
439 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR SMALL HAIL...INTENSE LIGHTNING AND
GUSTY WINDS IN CHEROKEE AND FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST OF HOLLY SPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT
10 MPH.

THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING OVER THE AREA BY 515 PM EDT.

SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERTS ARE ISSUED WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REACH 40 TO 50 MPH...HAIL IS EXPECTED TO BE LESS THAN THE SIZE OF
DIMES...OR SIGNIFICANT CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
501 PM EDT SAT MAY 17 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0345 PM    SANDERSVILLE              GA   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/17/03   WASHINGTON                     REPORTED BY WASHINGTON
                                          COUNTY EMA.