Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
330 AM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE LONGWAVE TROUGH
AXIS ACROSS WESTERN CONUS WITH BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXTENDING
ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS STATES INTO LOWER/MID MS RIVER VALLEY.
SHORTWAVE NOTED OVER NM ROUNDING BASE OF LONGWAVE TROUGH. 07Z
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OK WITH WARM FRONT
EXTENDING ACROSS EASTERN OK INTO NORTHERN AR. SMALL CLUSTER OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NOTED IN REGION OF MASS CONVERGENCE ALONG
NOSE OF 850MB LOW LEVEL JET OVER CENTRAL KS. EXPECT THIS CLUSTER TO
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EASTWARD...THUS HAVE LEFT FORECAST DRY THROUGH
MORNING HOURS ACROSS AREA.

AS NM SHORTWAVE EJECTS INTO PLAINS STATES THIS AFTERNOON...SURFACE
LOW PROGGED TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS INTO SOUTHWEST MO...AS WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN ZONES BY LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...ALLOWING GULF MOISTURE TO SPREAD NORTHWARD INTO REGION.
THIS MOISTURE...COMBINED WITH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IN EXCESS OF 7
C/KM WILL ALLOW FOR MUCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON
NEAR WARM FRONT ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES.  MODELS SUGGEST AREA OF
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP IN REGION OF ISENTROPIC LIFT NORTHEAST OF
SURFACE LOW ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS...SPREADING INTO WESTERN ZONES BY
LATE AFTERNOON. OF MORE CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE BASED
CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING. SHEAR/CAPE PROFILES ONCE AGAIN LOOK FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING TORNADIC POTENTIAL WITH STORMS ALONG/NORTH
OF WARM FRONT. CONVECTION SHOULD CONSOLIDATE INTO MCS AND TRACK
ACROSS FORECAST AREA THROUGH LATE EVENING HOURS. THUS HAVE GONE
AHEAD AND INTRODUCED CHANCE POPS ACROSS WESTERN ZONES FOR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...THEN LIKELY POPS FOR THIS EVENING FOR ALL BUT FAR
NORTHERN ZONES.

SEAMAN

345 PM...
AS ALLUDED TO IN LAST DISCUSSION HAVE ADDED MENTION OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TUESDAY NIGHT FOR AREAS SOUTH OF THE MO RIVER
AND THE EASTERN ONE THIRD OF FORECAST AREA. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT
ON ACTIVE SOUTHERN STREAM AS SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW DEVELOPS/DEEPENS WEAK WAVE ALONG SURFACE
BOUNDARY TO THE SOUTH OF FORECAST AREA. INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT
SHOULD ALLOW ELEVATED CONVECTION TO SPREAD AS FAR NORTH AS MISSOURI
RIVER TUESDAY EVENING. MAY BE UNDERDOING NORTHERN EXTENT OF CHANCE
POPS FOR TUESDAY NIGHT BUT BEST TO WAIT FOR ANOTHER MODEL RUN TO
CONFIRM CHANGE IN PREVIOUS FORECAST BEFORE INCREASING/SPREADING RAIN
CHANCES FURTHER NORTH. TEMPERATURES TOMORROW WILL BE TEMPERED BY
NORTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW AND INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS.
TWEAKED HIGH TEMPERATURES DOWN A BIT AS A RESULT.

MJ

UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE EXTENDED. ON
WEDNESDAY...SURFACE FRONT STARTS OUT SHOVED TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA...AND THEN COMES BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT.  WITH SHORTWAVE COMING
ACROSS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN.  DEPENDING UPON WHERE THE
FRONT SETS UP DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY...COULD SEE SOME STRONG
STORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.  THE GFS PUTS THE FRONT ALMOST ALONG THE
IA/MO BORDER...SO THE MAJORITY OF THE ACTIVITY MAY BE TO THE NORTH.
SHOULD SEE A BREAK IN THE RAIN ON FRIDAY AS SURFACE LOW HEADS TO THE
GREAT LAKES.  FRONT NEVER REALLY GETS TOO FAR PAST US THOUGH...AND
THERES ANOTHER LOW DEVELOPING ALONG THE ROCKIES.  NEXT UPPER LEVEL
WAVE SHOULD AFFECT THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON SATURDAY.  GOOD
AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND ECMWF.  BOTH SHOW 12Z SAT A FAIRLY STRONG
SURFACE LOW SETTING UP SOMEWHERE BETWEEN SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND
NORTHEAST KS.  HAVE RETAINED POPS FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WITH
SYSTEM MOVING OUT BY SUNDAY NIGHT.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE CLIMATOLOGY.

LVQ

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED CODING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
105 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND
ISOLATED TORNADOES EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...HAIL AND AN
ISOLATED TORNADO WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. AREAS
WITH THE GREATEST THREAT ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KANSAS CITY TO
MOBERLY LINE.  THIS ACTIVITY IS TIED TO A WARM FRONT MOVING NORTH
FROM SOUTHERN MISSOURI...AND AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING EAST
OUT OF KANSAS.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN NORTHERN MISSOURI WILL
BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST FOR LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME...SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION DEFINITELY WILL BE REQUIRED THIS
AFTERNOON...MAINLY IN AREAS SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 36.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX
OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LVQ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
155 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0153 PM    3 S KINGSVILLE            MO   1 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
201 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0158 PM    HOLDEN                    MO   1 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY EMERGENCY
                                          MANAGEMENT.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
209 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0207 PM    3 ENE QUICK CITY          MO   1.25 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
217 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0216 PM    URICH                     MO   .75 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   HENRY                          REPORTED BY COOPERATIVE
                                          OBSERVER.

MOZ046-070000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
224 PM CDT TUE MAY 6 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 272...IN
EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING. THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES
THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

COOPER.

THIS TORNADO WATCH INCLUDES THE CITY OF BOONVILLE.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...
AND DAMAGING WINDS...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. WHILE SEVERE
WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
231 PM CDT TUE MAY 06 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    CENTERVIEW                MO   .88 INCH HAIL
05/06/03   JOHNSON                        REPORTED BY STORM
                                          SPOTTER.