Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...FINAL DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

DAYS 1-2...

A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE DROPPING SOUTH ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE GREAT LAKES LONGWAVE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WAVE WILL PUSH A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT SOUTHWEST INTO WESTERN KS BY SUNDAY. DEEP
MOISTURE WILL BE POOLING ALONG AND JUST WEST OF THE BOUNDARY.
WITH FAIRLY COOL 700MB TEMPS, IT WONT TAKE MUCH TO POP A SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM. WILL CARRY 20-40% POPS FOR TONIGHT WITH HIGHEST IN
THE WEST WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATEST AND WHERE STORMS MAY
MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT FROM COLORADO. INTRODUCED SMALL POPS FOR THE
WESTERN 80% OF THE CWA FOR SUNDAY. ALTHOUGH THE SFC-850MB LAYER WILL
BE DRYING OUT SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY, ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE
PRESENT IN THE 750-650MB LAYER ABOVE THE FRONT, AND THIS SHOULD
KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS ACROSS ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA. AS A RESULT,
MONDAYS HIGH TEMPS WILL BE LOWERED INTO THE UPPER 60S.

DAYS 3-7...

A RETURN TO MORE BENIGN WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR DURING THIS PERIOD AS
FLOW ALOFT OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS BECOMES ALMOST DUE NORTH THROUGH
THURSDAY. THE GFS IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS RUN AND
SEEMS PHYSICALLY REASONABLE. THE EVOLUTION OF A MEAN TROUGH POSITION
OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BY NEXT WEEKEND WITH EROSION OF THE
CENTRAL UNITED STATES RIDGE SHOULD ALLOW INCREASING CHANCES FOR
MINOR WAVES TO RIPPLE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND A RETURN TO AT
LEAST A CLIMATOLOGICAL CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE GFS SUGGESTS
EROSION OF THE VERY WARM MID LEVEL POOL OF AIR OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS BY FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK BOUNDARY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. ALTHOUGH SUCH DETAILS FALL INTO THE NOISE LEVEL THAT FAR IN
THE FUTURE, THE EVOLUTION OF THE FLOW REGIME SUPPORTS INCREASING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD REBOUND NICELY BY MID
WEEK AS WARM AIR SPREADS FROM THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER THE CENTRAL
PLAINS.

ADDED PATCHY FOG SUNDAY MORNING DUE TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES, MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER, LIGHT WINDS AND RECENT RAINS.

FINCH/01

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 59 72 54 68 / 30 20 00 00
GCK 57 71 54 68 / 30 20 00 00
EHA 55 72 54 68 / 40 20 00 00
LBL 58 71 56 68 / 40 20 00 00
HYS 57 73 53 68 / 20 00 00 00
P28 60 73 55 68 / 20 00 00 00

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-251000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1255 PM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. THE BEST CHANCE
WILL BE AFTER 8 PM TO THE WEST OF A LINE FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL.
ONE OR TWO OF THESE STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH HAIL AS LARGE AS
PENNIES AND WIND GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS WILL PROBABLY NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FINCH