Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
152 AM CDT SAT MAY 24 2003

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FCST CONCERN WILL BE WHEN TO SHUT PCPN OFF TODAY.  SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED THIS MORNING AROUND 0615Z EAST OF KGCK WITH
OTHER CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING NORTH OF KDDC.  THIS
ACTIVITY IS FAR REMOVED FROM THE PRIMARY COMPLEX OF CONCERN ROLLING
SOUTH OUT OF SOUTHERN NEBRASKA.  THE STORMS THAT HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS WERE ON THE NOSE OF DEVELOPING NOCTURNAL LLJ,
ADVECTING HIGH MUCAPE AIR OF 3000 J/KG WITH SUFFICIENT DEEP LAYER
SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS.

THE LARGE CONVECTIVE COMPLEX IN SOUTH-CENTRAL NEBRASKA WILL LIKELY
IMPACT THE FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND 10 OR 11Z.  AS 700MB
COLD FRONT WORKS SOUTH, ASSOCIATED MCS ACTIVITY AHEAD OF IT WILL
SHIFT SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA BY MID-MORNING.  THIS WILL PRETTY MUCH
END THE REST OF THE RAIN AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE REST OF
THE FCST PERIOD.  WITH COOL SFC HIGH SETTLING IN BEHIND THE POTENT
VORT LOBE, HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET MUCH ABOVE 70 OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN COUNTIES WITH EASTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW.  RESIDUAL LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE, ALONG WITH ANTICIPATED MOIST SOIL, FOG MAY SETTLE
IN WITH LIGHT EAST NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

DAYS 3-7...

NO CHANGES PLANNED ATTM.

.PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 75 55 70 52 / 90 00 00 00
GCK 75 54 71 52 / 80 00 00 00
EHA 79 54 74 52 / 90 00 00 00
LBL 79 55 73 54 / 90 00 00 00
HYS 73 55 69 51 / 50 00 00 00
P28 76 58 70 53 / 90 00 00 00

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.

UMSCHEID

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-241000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
945 PM CDT FRI MAY 23 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...OVERNIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL LIKELY IMPACT MUCH OF
SOUTHWEST KANSAS BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP
OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO AND WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL SPREAD SOUTHEAST
TO THE LAKIN, SCOTT CITY, AND DIGHTON AREAS AFTER 1 AM. THE
STORMS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO EXPAND IN COVERAGE WITH LARGE HAIL TO
THE SIZE OF QUARTERS EXPECTED AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THE STORMS, WHICH MAY PROMOTE LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY, PRIMARILY SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY, AS A LARGE
COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTHEAST THROUGH
SOUTHWEST KANSAS. VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERN, WITH
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS A CONCERN WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER GROUPS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE
PREPARED FOR ACTIVATION AFTER 1 AM OVER ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

RB