Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS State College, PA

July 18, 2003Lebanon County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 18, 2003, 7:31 PM EDT for Lebanon County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 59 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 18, 2003, 7:31 PM EDT (23:31 UTC)
Expired: Jul 18, 2003, 8:30 PM EDT
In force: 59 min
Issued by: NWS State College, PA
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Lebanon County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD (KAPG), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 96 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2075 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 39 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

754 
WUUS51 KCTP 182331
SVRCTP
PAC075-190030-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
731 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  LEBANON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA

* UNTIL 830 PM EDT.

* AT 731 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES WEST OF PALMYRA...OR 4 MILES NORTH OF
  HUMMELSTOWN...MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  ANNVILLE AND CLEONA AROUND 740 PM.
  CORNWALL AND LEBANON AROUND 745 PM.
  KLEINFELTERSVILLE AND RICHLAND AROUND 755 PM.
  NEWMANSTOWN AROUND 800 PM.

THE MAIN THREAT FROM THIS STORM IS A DAMAGING WIND GUST. EXPECT GUSTS
TO EXCEED 60 MPH. THESE WINDS CAN EASILY KNOCK DOWN TREES AND POWER 
LINES...AND CAUSE PROPERTY DAMAGE. THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS INSIDE A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER...AWAY FROM 
WINDOWS.

LAT...LON 4025 7631 4023 7647 4018 7657 4038 7665
          4041 7660 4038 7630 4035 7619 4032 7615

KF

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 18, 4:00 PM EDT, 3 hours 31 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 4:00 PM EDT, 3 hours 31 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
400 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

WILL HAVE TO KEEP THIS SHORT WITH A FEW STRONG STORMS AFFECTING THE
AREA.  COLD FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...KICKING OFF
SCATTERED CONVECTION AHEAD IF IT.  DYNAMICS REMAIN MARGINAL FOR
SEVERE...SO EXPECT STRONGEST ACTIVITY TO REMAIN ISOLATED.
CONVECTION WILL DIE DOWN LATER THIS EVENING...BUT HELD ONTO A LOW
CHANCE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE WEEKEND BRINGING COOLER AND DRIER
WEATHER BEFORE A TROUGH FORMS TO OUR WEST...SPREADING A CHANCE OF
RAIN FOR TUE AND WED.

FCSTID =    99
MDT   62  82  60  85 /  60  10  00  10
IPT   57  79  56  83 /  40  00  00  10
BFD   45  73  46  75 /  10  00  00  10
JST   55  75  56  77 /  70  00  00  10
AOO   56  77  56  81 /  70  00  00  10
UNV   55  78  55  81 /  50  00  00  10
SEG   59  80  57  84 /  60  10  00  10
LNS   64  82  62  86 /  60  10  00  10
THV   63  81  62  85 /  60  10  00  10

.CTP...
PA...NONE.

RXR

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 3:49 AM EDT, 15 hours 42 minutes before

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-180945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
349 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TODAY.  THE AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WARM AND HUMID...AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP AS THE FRONT NEARS.  MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHICH IS
ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  STRONG...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT TODAY....HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MON THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

DANGELO

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 18, 6:16 PM EDT, 1 hour 15 minutes before

PAZ058-182315-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
616 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SCHUYLKILL COUNTY...

AT 615 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER ASHLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH. THE
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR ST. CLAIR...MINERSVILLE AND LOCUST LAKE
STATE PARK AROUND 630 PM...PORT CARBON AND POTTSVILLE AROUND 635
PM...NEW PHILADELPHIA...SCHUYLKILL HAVEN...MIDDLEPORT AND TUSCARORA
AROUND 640 PM AND ORWIGSBURG AROUND 645 PM.

THIS STORM WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...SMALL HAIL AND
FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING
UNTIL THE STORM PASSES. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR
FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

JUNG

Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:24 PM EDT, 1 hour 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
624 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0600 PM    ELYSBURG                  PA   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   NOTHUMBERLAND                  TREES DOWN

0610 PM    SHAMOKIN                  PA   70 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
07/18/03   NORTHUMBERLAND

RH

Local storm report, Jul 18, 6:36 PM EDT, 55 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
636 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0602 PM    LEWISTOWN                 PA   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   MIFFLIN                        LARGE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN

0625 PM    DECATUR                   PA   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   MIFFLIN                        TREES DOWN

RH

Special weather statement, Jul 18, 6:42 PM EDT, 49 minutes before

PAZ056-057-059-182345-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
642 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LEBANON...DAUPHIN AND PERRY
COUNTIES THROUGH 730 PM...

AT 626 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10 MILES EAST OF LEWISTOWN...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT
30 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR NEW BLOOMFIELD...MILLERSTOWN
AROUND 650 PM...NEWPORT AROUND 655 PM...DUNCANNON...MONTGOMERY FERRY
AROUND 705 PM...AMITY HALL AROUND 710 PM...HALIFAX AROUND 715
PM...DAUPHIN AND MARYSVILLE AROUND 720 PM.

THIS STORM HAS A LONG HISTORY OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL AND WIND
DAMAGE ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.  WHILE THE STORM HAS WEAKENED
CONSIDERABLY IN THE PAST HOUR...WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL
ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

DEVOIR

Local storm report, Jul 18, 7:22 PM EDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE, PA
722 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(EDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0602 PM    LEWISTOWN                 PA   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   MIFFLIN                        LARGE LIMBS AND WIRES DOWN

0625 PM    DECATUR                   PA   WIND DAMAGE
07/18/03   MIFFLIN                        TREES DOWN

0705 PM    DUNCANON                  PA   .88 INCH HAIL
07/18/03   PERRY                          WIND GUSTS ESTINMATED AT
                                          50 MPH WITH SEVERAL STREET
                                          SIGNS BLOWN DOWN.REPORTED
                                          BY SPOTTERS

PJ

Special weather statement, Jul 18, 7:25 PM EDT, 6 minutes before

PAZ026-190000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
725 PM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT HUNTINGDON COUNTY...

AT 716 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 11 MILES SOUTH OF HUNTINGDON...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 25 MPH. THE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR SHIRLEYSBURG AROUND 730
PM...ORBISONIA AROUND 735 PM AND SHADE GAP AROUND 745 PM. THIS STORM
HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE HAIL AND WINDS GUSTS OVER 40 MPH.

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 6:18 AM EDT	Flash Flood Warning	CTP	McKean, Potter	3 hr
Jul 18, 3:07 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Clearfield	53 min
Jul 18, 3:45 PM EDT	Tornado Warning	CTP	Clearfield	30 min
Jul 18, 4:14 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Clearfield	31 min
Jul 18, 4:18 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Lycoming, Union	57 min
Jul 18, 4:25 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Centre	50 min
Jul 18, 5:33 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Huntingdon	27 min
Jul 18, 5:53 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Columbia, Northumberland	22 min
Jul 18, 6:02 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Juniata, Mifflin	28 min
Jul 18, 7:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Perry	29 min
Jul 18, 7:01 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Dauphin	59 min
Jul 18, 7:42 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Huntingdon	18 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.