Flash Flood Warning 11, NWS State College, PA

000 
WGUS71 KCTP 181122
FFSCTP
PAC083-105-181315-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
721 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003


...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR MCKEAN AND POTTER COUNTIES...

AT 714 AM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS IN MCKEAN COUNTY 
REPORTED SEVERAL SMALL CREEKS OUT OF THEIR BANKS IN THE FOSTER 
TOWNSHIP AREA...AS WELL AS WATER ACROSS ROADWAYS AND MINOR BASEMENT 
FLOODING.  

A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUED TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY 
RAINFALL ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 11 MILES NORTH OF KANE TO 22 
MILES WEST OF WELLSBORO.  INDIVIDUAL SHOWERS WERE MOVING EAST AT 
AROUND 30 MPH WHILE THE LINE WAS SLOWLY SINKING SOUTHWARD AT AROUND 
10 MPH.

RAINFALL WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH 900 AM...BUT 
LOCAL DRAINAGE AND RUNOFF PROBLEMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID 
MORNING HOURS. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER 
COVERS THE ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE 
ABANDONED. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

$$

LAT...LON 4174 7893 4175 7770 4220 7756 4225 7852

DEVOIR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
208 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

RW IN ADVNC OF CD FNT PUSHING INTO CENTRAL COS ATTM AND TRW NOW
ALONG THE NY BORDER ALONG A LLVL CONVERGENCE AXIS JUST SOUTH OF THE
ACTUAL FRONT/WIND SHIFT. REAL FRONT SEEMS TO BE ALONG SPINE OF LK
ONT WWRD TO KGRR.

FORECAST IS HIGHLY CONTINUOUS WITH GOOD GRIDS IN PLACE ALREADY. WL
UP POPS IN MOST AREAS 10-20 PCT TODAY. REAL WORRY IS FOR HOW STRONG
THE STORMS THAT FORM THIS AFTN WL GET. JET ENERGY IS WAY ABV WHAT IS
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...HOW MANY TIMES DO YOU SEE AN 80KT JET
OV PA IN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUMMER?  SLGT RISK JUST POSTED FOR SRN
HALF OF AREA...AS MOST OF THE ACTION SHUD BE (AS ALLUDED TO BY PREV
SHIFTS) SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80 THIS AFTN...AND BY NIGHTFALL ONLY THE
FAR SRN TIER/LWR SUSQ WL HAVE THUNDER REMAINING AS THE DRIER/MORE
STABLE AIR WORKS SWRD THRU THE LATE AFTN AND EVENING HRS. WILL
MENTION GUSTY TSTM WIND WORDING IN ZNS FOR SRN HALF OF CWA.

COULD GET COOL AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE NW MTNS. KBFD GOT TO 45 AND KANE
(COOP) GOT TO 41 THURS MORN. IT WON/T BE AS CLEAR TONIGHT...BUT UPR
40S STILL CALLED FOR. REST OF AREA WL BE TOO CLDY TO GO TOO COOL.
SAT PRETTY UNEVENTFUL...EXCEPT FOR MORE CLDS IN THE NERN HALF OF
AREA UNDER A SPOKE OF HIGH VORT ROLLING ARND UPR LOW.

XTNDD: WL HOLD FCST AS IS W/CHCS FOR PRECIP LATER MON THRU
THURS...AS ANAMALOUS UPR TROF OV GLS/MS VLY THROWS MOISTURE AND
SHEAR AT US. LLVL AND JET STREAM LVL WIND ANOMALIES (IF THEY VERUFY)
ON TUES/WED SPELL A CHANCE FOR A SIGNIFICANT MID-SUMMER SVR OUTBREAK
FOR THE EASTERN U.S. AS THE TROF BEGINS TO SLIP EASTWARD BEFORE
WASHING OUT/FILLING.

.CTP...
PA...SPS FOR SLGT RISK SVR SRN HALF CWA.

DANGELO

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-180945-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
349 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
TODAY.  THE AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WARM AND HUMID...AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP AS THE FRONT NEARS.  MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHICH IS
ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  STRONG...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT TODAY....HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED MON THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK...BUT NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

DANGELO

PAZ019-024>028-033>036-045-046-049>053-056>059-063>066-181730-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
347 AM EDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING OVER
SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN
OKLAHOMA HAS PLACED SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK
FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY.

A COLD FRONT WILL DROP THROUGH THE STATE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TODAY.
THE AIR TO THE SOUTH OF THE FRONT IS WARM AND HUMID...AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRE UP AS THE FRONT NEARS.  MOST OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 80...WHICH IS
ALSO WHERE THE GREATEST THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  THE WINDS ALOFT ARE VERY STRONG FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR.  STRONG...DAMAGING THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT TODAY....HOWEVER SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE.

THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL DIMINISH AROUND MIDNIGHT...AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TO THE SOUTH OF THE STATE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

DANGELO