Flash Flood Warning 25, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2003

SHORT TERM (TODAY)...IMPRESSIVE COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR LAREDO. THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT ONGOING EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. PREFER THE GFS HANDLING OF THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE
GFS SHOWS GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY STRETCHING NORTHWEST TO THE COMPLEX OF STORMS
OVER LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD MASSIVE
CONVECTIVE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TODAY. THE RADAR LOOP INDICATES
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX DEVELOPING NORTH OF LAREDO. GFS MODEL
SLOWLY SHIFTS VORTICITY MAX EASTWARD TO THE COASTAL BEND DURING THE
DAY. WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A HIGHWAY 281 LINE. LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WITH CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM OUT WEST. KCRP VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 25 TO 35 KNOTS LOW
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY.

LONG-TERM (TONIGHT THRU SAT)...MCS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND REMAIN
LONG-LIVED AS VERY TROPICAL AIRMASS HAS PRECLUDED DEVELOPMENT OF
DOWNDRAFTS/COLD POOL.  GFS/UKMET BOTH IDENTIFY A VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND THIS PROBABLY IS BEST REPRESENTING THE MCV
CURRENTLY NEAR LRD.  BY 6Z THIS VORT MAX HAS EXITED THE NE CWA AND
EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR LIKELY RAIN TO HAVE ENDED BY THIS EVENING AS
BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.  RRQ OF THE
UPPER JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST.  NO
REPEAT MCS DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT LIKELY BEING LOCALIZED.  THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FROPA FOR
TODAY IS NO LONGER AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SUPPORTS THE GFS SOLUTION OF
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.  BY MONDAY...850 FLOW
BECOMES SWLY AND DESPITE CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS WILL LIMIT
LLVL CONVERGENCE AND WILL ONLY FCST CHANCE POPS.  FINALLY BY
TUESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN IN BRINGING DECENT FRONT
THROUGH.  BELIEVE THAT THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER DUE TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.  WILL KEEP WED-SAT.  RETURN FLOW PROGGED BY GFS/ECMWF BY
THU...WITH ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED EARLY SAT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED.  SCA NEEDED OFFSHORE TUE-WED BEHIND FRONT.

CRP TE 082/070 083/072 083 64322
VCT TE 081/068 083/069 083 43322
LRD TE 078/070 083/074 085 +5322

.CRP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

89/TMT...SHORT-TERM
92/TR...LONG-TERM

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-131100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROVIDE
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS NEAR 5 INCHES POSSIBLE. PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS HAS RECEIVED 5 TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN SINCE SATURDAY
EVENING. ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL QUICKLY BECOME RUNOFF
AND AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION OVER THE REGION ESPECIALLY
OVER WEBB...LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES.

FOR THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS...SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY
AND TAPER OFF TONIGHT. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.  THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT. A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND STRONG NORTHERLY
WINDS INTO THE AREA.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/TR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
522 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0130 AM    10 W ENCINAL              TX   FLASH FLOOD
10/12/03   WEBB                           WATER OVER THE ROAD ON
                                          HIGHWAYS 83 AND 44 IN
                                          NORTHERN WEBB COUNTY
                                          REPORTED BY WEBB COUNTY SO.

0245 AM    25 N LAREDO               TX   FLASH FLOOD
10/12/03   WEBB                           1 TO 2 FEET OF WATER OVER
                                          INTERSTATE 35 IN PLACES
                                          BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 24 AND
                                          36 NORTH OF LAREDO.
                                          VEHICLES STRANDED.

0300 AM    5 NE LAREDO               TX   FLASH FLOOD
10/12/03   WEBB                           WATER OVER THE ROAD AT LOOP
                                          20 AND IGNACIO ROAD IN
                                          NORTHEAST LAREDO REPORTED
                                          BY WEBB COUNTY SO.

0315 AM    COTULLA                   TX   FLASH FLOOD
10/12/03   LA SALLE                       WATER OVER THE ROADS WITHIN
                                          THE CITY OF COTULLA.

0315 AM    25 SE COTULLA             TX   FLASH FLOOD
10/12/03   LA SALLE                       HIGH WATER CONTINUING TO
                                          RISE OVER CENTRAL LA SALLE
                                          COUNTY WITH FM 624 AND FM
                                          469 STILL CLOSED.

TMT