Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 121111
FFSCRP
TXC131-283-311-479-121215-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
608 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR DUVAL...LA SALLE...MCMULLEN
AND WEBB COUNTIES UNTIL 715 AM CDT...

AT 606 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL 
WERE OCCURRING OVER WEBB...LA SALLE...DUVAL AND SOUTHERN MCMULLEN
COUNTIES. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE MOVING TO THE 
NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH. 

ADDITIONAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER 
DUVAL COUNTY AND 1 TO 1 1/2 INCHES OVER WEBB...LA SALLE AND 
MCMULLEN COUNTIES THROUGH 715 AM. THIS WILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING 
SITUATION OVER THESE COUNTIES DUE TO THE SATURATED CONDITIONS FROM 
EARLIER HEAVY RAINS. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES MAY HAVE 
OCCURRED OVER WEBB...MCMULLEN AND LA SALLE COUNTIES.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE WATERS COVERS THE ROADWAY.
THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS SAFELY.
VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

LAT...LON 2862 9836 2805 9834 2733 9827 2735 9947
          2814 10006 2820 9940 2860 9938

$$

TMT

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
350 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2003

SHORT TERM (TODAY)...IMPRESSIVE COLD CLOUD TOPS WITH MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE COMPLEX NEAR LAREDO. THE HEAVY RAIN EVENT ONGOING EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL PERSIST INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. PREFER THE GFS HANDLING OF THE CURRENT SITUATION. THE
GFS SHOWS GOOD UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE REMAINING OVER THE WESTERN
FORECAST AREA THROUGH 18Z. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED FROM
SOUTH OF BAFFIN BAY STRETCHING NORTHWEST TO THE COMPLEX OF STORMS
OVER LA SALLE AND WEBB COUNTIES. RADAR LOOP SHOWS SHOWERS AND STORMS
MOVING NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TOWARD MASSIVE
CONVECTIVE AREA. EXPECT CONTINUED LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TODAY. THE RADAR LOOP INDICATES
MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX DEVELOPING NORTH OF LAREDO. GFS MODEL
SLOWLY SHIFTS VORTICITY MAX EASTWARD TO THE COASTAL BEND DURING THE
DAY. WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY FOR THE RIO GRANDE
PLAINS GENERALLY ALONG AND WEST OF A HIGHWAY 281 LINE. LOW LEVEL
FLOW REMAINS STRONG ALONG THE COAST AND OFFSHORE WITH CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM OUT WEST. KCRP VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS 25 TO 35 KNOTS LOW
LEVEL EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS. WILL CONTINUE SCEC FOR OFFSHORE WATERS
TODAY.

LONG-TERM (TONIGHT THRU SAT)...MCS WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AND REMAIN
LONG-LIVED AS VERY TROPICAL AIRMASS HAS PRECLUDED DEVELOPMENT OF
DOWNDRAFTS/COLD POOL.  GFS/UKMET BOTH IDENTIFY A VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THE CWA TODAY AND THIS PROBABLY IS BEST REPRESENTING THE MCV
CURRENTLY NEAR LRD.  BY 6Z THIS VORT MAX HAS EXITED THE NE CWA AND
EXPECT THE CHANCE FOR LIKELY RAIN TO HAVE ENDED BY THIS EVENING AS
BEST LLVL CONVERGENCE WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE CWA.  RRQ OF THE
UPPER JET WILL REMAIN IN PLACE...AND DIVERGENCE ALOFT MAY HELP
GENERATE SCATTERED CONVECTION TONIGHT ESPECIALLY OVER THE WEST.  NO
REPEAT MCS DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED TONIGHT WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
THREAT LIKELY BEING LOCALIZED.  THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED FROPA FOR
TODAY IS NO LONGER AND SURFACE ANALYSIS SUPPORTS THE GFS SOLUTION OF
LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPS/DEWPOINTS TONIGHT.  BY MONDAY...850 FLOW
BECOMES SWLY AND DESPITE CONTINUED UPPER DIVERGENCE THIS WILL LIMIT
LLVL CONVERGENCE AND WILL ONLY FCST CHANCE POPS.  FINALLY BY
TUESDAY...MODELS IN AGREEMENT ONCE AGAIN IN BRINGING DECENT FRONT
THROUGH.  BELIEVE THAT THIS SHOULD HELP DRIVE THE DEEPER MOISTURE
SOUTH OF THE CWA...BUT CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY LINGER DUE TO ZONAL FLOW
ALOFT.  WILL KEEP WED-SAT.  RETURN FLOW PROGGED BY GFS/ECMWF BY
THU...WITH ANOTHER FRONT EXPECTED EARLY SAT AS FLOW BECOMES MORE
AMPLIFIED.  SCA NEEDED OFFSHORE TUE-WED BEHIND FRONT.

CRP TE 082/070 083/072 083 64322
VCT TE 081/068 083/069 083 43322
LRD TE 078/070 083/074 085 +5322

.CRP...FLASH FLOOD WATCH TODAY RIO GRANDE PLAINS.

89/TMT...SHORT-TERM
92/TR...LONG-TERM

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-121100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM MEXICO. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT WILL ADD TO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND COASTAL BEND. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
INTO THE AREA.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/TR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1125 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 PM    CALLIHAM                  TX   FLASH FLOOD
10/11/03   MCMULLEN                       6 INCHES OF WATER OVER                                         PASS
                                          HIGHWAY 72.

0830 PM    5 E CALLIHAM              TX   FLASH FLOOD
10/11/03   LIVE OAK                       6 INCHES OF WATER OVER
                                          HIGHWAY 72.

0830 PM    20 SE COTULLA             TX   FLASH FLOOD
10/11/03   LA SALLE                       HIGHWAY 624 CLOSED DUE TO
                                          HIGH WATER.

0935 PM    20 SE COTULLA             TX   FLASH FLOOD
10/11/03   LA SALLE                       HIGHWAY 624 CLOSED DUE TO
                                          HIGH WATER.

0940 PM    CALLIHAM                  TX   FLASH FLOOD
10/11/03   MCMULLEN                       WATER OVER THE ROAD ALONG                                      PASS
                                          HIGHWAY 72.

AP