Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 120456
FFSCRP
TXC283-311-479-120600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1154 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LA SALLE...NORTHERN WEBB
AND NORTHERN MCMULLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

...SERIOUS FLOODING SITUATION CONTINUES OVER CENTRAL LA SALLE
   COUNTY AND EXTREME NORTHERN WEBB COUNTY...

AT 1148 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS 
PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER LA SALLE...NORTHWESTERN
MCMULLEN AND NORTHERN WEBB COUNTIES. THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL WAS
OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY FROM NORTH OF LOS ANGELES
TO 5 MILES SOUTHEAST OF COTULLA TO NEAR ENCINAL. RAIN AMOUNTS
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THIS AREA. DOPPLER
RADAR ESTIMATES PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY HAVE RECEIVED 
UP TO 8 INCHES OF RAIN THIS EVENING. LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS
REPORT WATER OVER THE ROADWAY ON FM 624 AND 469 IN CENTRAL LA
SALLE COUNTY. 

FLOODING IS LIKELY OCCURRING OVER THE NUECES RIVER WATERSHED WITH 
SAUZ...ALTITA AND CHARCO MARRANO CREEKS OVERFLOWING AND AFFECTING
FM ROADS 624 AND 469 AND COUNTY ROADS. PLEASE AVOID LOW LYING 
AREAS IN CENTRAL LA SALLE COUNTY DURING THIS FLASH FLOOD EPISODE.
 
BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS 
OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD 
WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS 
RISING.

LAT...LON 2864 9846 2778 9901 2783 9964 2821 9940
          2864 9939

$$

TMT

000 
WGUS74 KCRP 120605
FFSCRP
TXC283-311-479-120630-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
103 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2003

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR LA SALLE...NORTHERN WEBB AND  
   NORTHERN MCMULLEN COUNTIES UNTIL 130 AM CDT...

AT 1252 AM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WERE OCCURRING ACROSS ALL 
OF LA SALLE AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES AND NORTHERN WEBB COUNTY. DOPPLER 
RADAR ESTIMATED 1 TO 2 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL RAINFALL HAS OCCURRED
OVER CENTRAL LA SALLE TO NORTHERN WEBB COUNTIES SINCE MIDNIGHT.

DUE TO THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL SINCE 6 PM SATURDAY NIGHT...ANY
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL AGGRAVATE THE FLOODING SITUATION OVER
LA SALLE AND NORTHERN WEBB AND MCMULLEN COUNTIES. ESPECIALLY 
HAZARDOUS FLOODING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER CENTRAL LA SALLE 
COUNTY WHERE FM ROADS 624 AND 469 HAVE BEEN CLOSED DUE TO HIGH 
WATER. MORE HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THESE COUNTIES EARLY 
THIS MORNING. THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL BE EXTENDED SHORTLY FOR 
THESE COUNTIES. 

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE 
DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. IF FLASH FLOODING IS 
OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND TO EXCAPE FLOOD 
WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS 
RISING.

LAT...LON 2865 9847 2809 9858 2808 9882 2780 9899
          2776 9971 2820 9980 2821 9940 2863 9940

$$

TMT

SOUTH TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1000 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

CONVECTION IN MEXICO CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY AS BOUNDARY DRAPED
ACROSS LIVE OAK TO NORTHERN WEBB REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY WITH
HEAVY RAIN THREAT CONTINUING.  WINDS OVER THE EAST HAVE INCREASED IN
RESPONSE TO CONVECTION TO THE WEST TO 10-15KT WITH WINDS NEAR THE
COAST IN THE 15-20KT RANGE.  WILL UPDATE CWF TO INCLUDE A SCEC FOR
ALL WATERS TONIGHT.   INCREASED SURFACE WINDS MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH
SHEAR FOR MCS IN MEXICO TO PROPAGATE EAST TONIGHT.  SHEAR IS A
LIMITING FACTOR...HOWEVER LACK OF ANY DRY AIR ALOFT WHERE CONVECTION
IS OCCURRING ALSO IS LIMITING THE FORMATION OF A COLD POOL.  TOUGH
CALL WHETHER THIS CONVECTION WILL MAKE ANY PROGRESS INTO THE
CWA...BUT FEEL MORE COMFORTABLE WITH INCREASING POPS TO 100 PERCENT
NW TO 50 PERCENT EAST.  FLASH FLOOD WATCH CONFIG LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW.

92/TR

PREVIOUS UPDATE...
MSAS ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURGE OF HIGHER DEWPTS ACRS THE CWA. THUS WL
INCREASE MIN TEMPS A COUPLE DEGREES. A SFC LOW HAS DVLPD OVR DEEP S
TX WITH A NE FLOW OVR MAJORITY OF CWA. THIS LOW IS FARTHER E THAN
THE AVN PROGD. STRONG UPPER LEV DIFF AND S/WV OVR MEX ALONG WITH
ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE IS PRODUCING +TSRAS CURRENTLY
ACRS NW CWA. THESE DYNAMICS ARE PROGD TO CONT OVRNIGHT WITH CONTD
PRECIP THRU SUN. WL RAISE POPS AND ISSUE FFA FOR
WEBB...LASALLE...MCMULLEN AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES. WL UPDATE ZONES TO
INCLUDE FFA AND REFLECT WARMER MINS AND NE FLOW.

.CRP WATCH/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FFA FOR WEBB...LASALLE...MCMULLEN
AND LIVE OAK COUNTIES.

81...TE

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THRU SUNDAY NIGHT)...AVN AND ETA NOT IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH CF CURRENTLY OVR TX PANHANDLE. AVN MUCH MORE
AGRESSIVE WITH MOISTURE AND BRINGING CF THRU THE CWA SUN MORNING.
ETA IS DRIER...BUT DOES BRING THE CF THRU CWA OVRNIGHT TONIGHT WITH
WINDS BACKING BRIEFLY TO THE NE...THEN STALLS THE FRONT ACRS THE CWA
WITH GENERALLY A LGT ELY FLOW THRU SUN. AVN ALSO SHOWS UPPER LEV
JET/TROF AXIS/IMPULSE FARTHER S AND CLOSER TO W CWA BY TONIGHT AND
SUN WHICH WOULD PROVIDE BETTER UPPER LEV FORCING FOR ESPECIALLY W
CWA. BASED ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY AND ENERGY NEAR DRT...WL GO WITH
AVN SOLN. THUS...WL KEEP TONIGHTS AND SUN POPS AS IS WITH HIGHER
POPS OVR W ZONES AND LOWER NE. CF PROGD TO MOV INTO THE CWA SUN MORN
AND THRU THE ENTIRE CWA BY AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASING NE FLOW IN
ITS WAKE.  PRECIP CHCS CONT SUN NIGHT WITH ISENTROPIC LIFT AS THE
MAIN MECHANISM. AS FOR FLASH FLOOD WATCH...CWA HASNT SEEN AS MUCH
RAIN THE PAST TWO DAYS AS HAD ANTICIPATED AND AM EXPECTING HIGHEST
PRECIP CHCS OVR W CWA WHERE FFG IS MOD...WITH ISOL/LOCALIZED
FLOODING RATHER THAN WIDESPREAD. THUS WILL HOLD OFF ON FFA AND LET
LATER SHIFT ANALYZE LATEST MODEL RUNS AND TRENDS. DO NOT ANTICIPATE
SCAS ATTM...ALTHOUGH IT MAY GET CLOSE.  DO EXPECT SCEC CONDITIONS.
WINDS DIMINISH SUN NIGHT AS THE GRADIENT RELAXES. LOWER DEWPTS AND
WK CAA WL MEAN LOWER TEMPS SUN AND SUN NIGHT.

.LONG-TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SAT)...ETA AND GFS DIFFER WITH RESPECT TO
THE PSN OF THE FRONT BY MONDAY...WITH THE GFS MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH
SWD MOVEMENT. GFS/ETA PROG WEAK UPPER ENERGY TO MOVE ACRS MAINLY
NORTH OF THE CWFA MONDAY. ALTHOUGH PW VALUES ARE PROGD TO DECREASE
MONDAY ACRS THE CWFA...MSTR SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR PCPN. THE GFS
SOLN WOULD SUGGEST MORE STRATIFORM RAIN OWING TO ISENTROPIC LIFT
WHILE THE ETA SOLN...WITH THE FRONT STALLED/RETREATING ACRS THE
CWFA...SUGGEST MORE CONVECTIVE RAIN OWNING TO MSTR CONVERENCE. WL
FCST A BLEND OF BOTH TYPES FOR MONDAY. THE LATEST ETA/GFS/UKMET
CONSISTENT WITH ANOTHER FRONT ENTERING THE REGION TUESDAY...IN
RESPONSE TO UPPER ENERGY MOVG ACRS THE PLAINS. ANTICIPATE AT LEAST
ISOLD CONVECTION ALG IT...WITH MSTR AS THE LIMITING FACTOR. THE GFS
PROGS ANOTHER BOUNDARY TO ENTER THE CWFA THURSDAY...HWR NOT
CONFIDENT IN THIS SOLN SINCE IT IS A DEPARTURE FROM THE PREVIOUS
RUN. WL MAINTAIN A DRY FCST FRIDAY/SAT. MARINE...WL LOWER WIND SPEED
AFTER FROPA TUESDAY FROM PREVIOUS FCST AS AVN PROGS ONLY SLIGHT
FALLS IN THICKNESS VALUES.

CRP TE 073/081 065/079/065 454344
VCT TE 070/079 062/077/062 343333
LRD TE 074/080 064/077/065 685333
&&

81/TE...SHORT-TERM
87...LONG-TERM

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-TXZ229>234-239>247-121100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
600 AM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS TODAY. HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS UP TO
40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE RIO
GRANDE PLAINS. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT FOR THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM MEXICO. A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT WILL ADD TO THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS. LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE THUNDERSTORMS WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AREAS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

FOR THE COASTAL BEND AND VICTORIA CROSSROADS...SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT.
BRIEF HEAVY RAIN AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS
AND COASTAL BEND. WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
THROUGH THE AREA...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON
MONDAY...WITH JUST A SLIGHT CHANCE EXPECTED TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS
ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
ON TUESDAY WHICH WILL BRING DRIER AIR AND STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS
INTO THE AREA.  SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE REQUIRED TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

TMT/TR