Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Tucson, AZ
NWS Tucson, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 28, 2002, 2:09 PM MST for Cochise County, Arizona. It was in force for 51 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 28, 2002, 2:09 PM MST (21:09 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 28, 2002, 3:00 PM MST
- In force
- 51 min
- Issued by
- NWS Tucson, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Cochise County, AZ
The radar
The Tucson radar (KEMX), 34 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:10 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Tuscon, AZ (KTUS), launched 12:00Z, 9.2 hours before the alert went out and 56 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 3633 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -104 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1518 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 34 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 75 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 68 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 7.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
223 WUUS55 KTWC 282109 SVRTWC AZC003-282200- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 208 PM MST WED AUG 28 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TUCSON HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WEST CENTRAL COCHISE COUNTY IN ARIZONA * UNTIL 300 PM MST * AT 200 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES WEST OF BENSON...OR ABOUT 30 MILES NORTH OF SIERRA VISTA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH. LARGE HAIL IS LIKELY. PUT YOUR VEHICLE IN A GARAGE OR CARPORT AND MOVE TO A STURDY SHELTER. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH... HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR BUSINESS. HEAVY RAINS FLOOD ROADS QUICKLY SO DO NOT DRIVE INTO AREAS WHERE WATER COVERS THE ROAD. LAT...LON 3206 11044 3187 11044 3204 11006 3224 11024
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 28, 9:45 AM MST, 4 hours 24 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 28, 9:45 AM MST, 4 hours 24 minutes before
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 945 AM MST WED AUG 28 2002 .SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. AS A RESULT...AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES. .DISCUSSION...LOOKING AT IR IMAGERY...WE STILL HAVE SOME CLOUD DEBRIS ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FROM LAST NIGHTS THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED IN MEXICO. A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES HIT IN COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ AROUND MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER MOST ACTIVITY WAS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE U.S. AND MEXICAN BORDER. WITH LOWER LEVEL WINDS FROM SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WAS PULLED UP FROM THE COMPLEX INTO EXTREME SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...FROM TUCSON EAST. AS A RESULT OF MOISTURE INCREASE AND CLOUD COVER...LOW TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA WERE 10 DEGREES ABOVE THE PREVIOUS NIGHTS LOW TEMPS. WITH THE HIGHER HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE AREA (CURRENTLY 47 PERCENT FROM YESTERDAYS 20 PERCENT)....TEMPERATURES MAY NOT BE AS HIGH AS THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. PREVIOUS SHIFT DROPPED TEMPERATURES BACK ABOUT 5 DEGREES ACROSS THE AREA FOR TODAY AND THIS LOOKS PRETTY GOOD. CAN SEE THE SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE BEST FROM THE 12Z KTUS SOUNDING...WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.75 INCHES (THE PREVIOUS SOUNDING ONLY HAD .8 INCHES). IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WE HAD 10 TO 20 KNOT SOUTHERLY WINDS HELPING PULL THE MOISTURE NORTHWARDS. HOWEVER...THE YUMA AND PHOENIX SOUNDINGS WERE RATHER DRY. THE PWAT VALUES AT YUMA ONLY INCREASED FROM .62 TO .78 INCHES AND THE KPSR ONLY INCREASED FROM .68 TO .81 INCHES...AND BOTH DRY IN THE LOWEST LEVELS. TAKING A LOOK AT YUMA VAD WIND PROFILER...THE WINDS WERE PREDOMINATELY FROM THE WEST OR NORTHWEST FROM 2000 FEET AND UPWARD WITH ONLY 10 TO 15 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTH BELOW 2000 FEET. A RECENT VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED SLIGHT SURGING...WITH WINDS FROM THE SOUTH AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS UP TO 3000 FEET. SO THE BIG QUESTION FOR THE DAY...ARE WE GOING TO GET SOME THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TODAY? WITH THE JET MAX MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TOMORROW THERE SHOULD BE SOME WEAK UPPER LEVEL FORCING. PLUS THERE IS ENOUGH MOISTURE IN EXTREME PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA...THAT MAY BE ABLE TO FIRE SOME SORT OF CONVECTION. THE ETA MODEL INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELD WOULD BE OVER CENTRAL ARIZONA AND SHOWS PRECIP OVER EASTERN ARIZONA. HOWEVER...THE AVN MODEL INDICATES A MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TYPE EVENT FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE FIELD OVER NEW MEXICO AREA WHERE IT IS PREDICTING THE BEST AREA FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. CURRENTLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ALREADY FIRED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO. FOR NOW...CURRENTLY THINK THAT BEST CHANCES OF DEVELOPMENT WILL BE IN THE WHITES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. NOT TOO CONFIDENT ABOUT THE 30 AND 40 POPS IN TUCSON AREA...MAY HAVE TO MAKE AN UPDATE TO LOWER BY 10 PERCENT OR SO...BUT WOULD LIKE TO SEE HOW THINGS DEVELOP. MG .TWC...NONE.
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Aug 28, 11:30 AM MST, 2 hours 39 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-290700- SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1130 AM MST WED AUG 28 2002 .SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA REMAIN FAIRLY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS OR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER TROF HAS SETTLED INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN AREA AND THIS HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. .DISCUSSION...THE LARGE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS DUE TO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF COCHISE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THE TROF IS CAUSING FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL HELP TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS. HOWEVER THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THE STORMS AT GOOD CLIP TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY VALUES. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE SKIES TO CLOUD OVER THUS PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THIS WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WINDS FROM THESE STORMS. HOWEVER COLD AIR ALOFT COULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF HAIL.
Special weather statement, Aug 28, 12:02 PM MST, 2 hours 7 minutes before
AZZ019-029>035-290700- SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ 1130 AM MST WED AUG 28 2002 .SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NEARLY ALL OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA REMAIN FAIRLY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. AN UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS OR SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER TROF HAS SETTLED INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN AREA AND THIS HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. .DISCUSSION...THE LARGE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS DUE TO A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF COCHISE COUNTY LATE TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THE TROF IS CAUSING FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL HELP TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE STORMS. HOWEVER THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THE STORMS AT GOOD CLIP TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NEAR CLIMATOLOGY VALUES. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL ALSO CAUSE SKIES TO CLOUD OVER THUS PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THIS WILL HELP TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WINDS FROM THESE STORMS. HOWEVER COLD AIR ALOFT COULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF HAIL.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Tucson, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 28, 1:48 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 42 min |
| Aug 28, 2:31 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 29 min |
| Aug 28, 2:35 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pinal | 25 min |
| Aug 28, 3:12 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima, Pinal | 48 min |
| Aug 28, 4:04 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | TWC | Pima | 41 min |
| Aug 28, 4:54 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 3 hr |
| Aug 28, 4:55 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | TWC | Pima | 110 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.