Severe Thunderstorm Warning 62, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
215 PM MST WED AUG 28 2002

.SYNOPSIS...AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL
BRING A SLOW INCREASE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
THE REST OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. AFTERNOON HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES AS THIS HAPPENS.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE STARTING TO INCREASE ACROSS FAR SOUTHEAST
ARIZONA. 00Z KTUS RAOB HAD PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND .8 WITH
THE TREND UP. NICE COMPLEX ALONG THE SONORA/CHIHUAHUA BORDER IN
NORTHWEST MEXICO HAS SENT AN ACTIVE OUTFLOW TO NEAR THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER IN AN AREA SOUTH OF A NOGALES TO DOUGLAS LINE.
SURFACE DEWPTS HAVE SURGED INTO THE 50S AND ISOLATED CONVECTION HAS
EVEN PUSHED INTO COCHISE COUNTY. WITH THE MOISTURE VIRTUALLY A FAIT
ACCOMPLI WELL BE A LITTLE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN REINTRODUCING
CONVECTION INTO AREAS FROM TUCSON EAST AND SOUTH TODAY AND THURSDAY.

WHILE THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE WILL PICK UP ACTION AGAIN
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...WESTERN AREAS WILL STILL LIKELY FEEL TOO
MUCH INFLUENCE FROM THE WESTERLY COMPONENT TO THE FLOW UNDER THE
WEST COAST TROUGHINESS TO BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN ANY TREND TOWARD AN
INCREASE IN DEEPER MOISTURE. WELL STILL NOT BE SET UP FOR ANY LARGE
SCALE TRANSPORT OF DEEP MOISTURE BACK INTO THE AREA...BUT ENOUGH FOR
ISOLATED TO LOW SCATTERED COVERAGE ON THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN. M

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-290700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1130 AM MST WED AUG 28 2002

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NEARLY ALL
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. AN UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS OR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER TROF HAS SETTLED INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AREA AND THIS HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS DUE TO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF COCHISE COUNTY LATE
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THE TROF IS CAUSING
FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL HELP TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE
STORMS. HOWEVER THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THE STORMS AT
GOOD CLIP TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY VALUES. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL ALSO
CAUSE SKIES TO CLOUD OVER THUS PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THIS WILL
HELP TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WINDS FROM THESE STORMS.
HOWEVER COLD AIR ALOFT COULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF HAIL.

AZZ019-029>035-290700-

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1130 AM MST WED AUG 28 2002

.SYNOPSIS...THE AIRMASS HAS MOISTENED SIGNIFICANTLY OVER NEARLY ALL
OF SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE AREA REMAIN
FAIRLY DRY UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT. AN UPPER
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS OR SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. AN UPPER TROF HAS SETTLED INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN AREA AND THIS HAS CAUSED AN INCREASE IN THE SOUTHWEST
WINDS ALOFT OVER THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE.

.DISCUSSION...THE LARGE INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS DUE TO A
THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT DEVELOPED SOUTH OF COCHISE COUNTY LATE
TUESDAY. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER HIGH AND THE TROF IS CAUSING
FAIRLY BRISK SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT OVER THE AREA. THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL HELP TO PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM THESE
STORMS. HOWEVER THE STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PUSH THE STORMS AT
GOOD CLIP TO THE NORTHEAST. THUS THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN IS NEAR
CLIMATOLOGY VALUES. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL ALSO
CAUSE SKIES TO CLOUD OVER THUS PREVENTING STRONG HEATING. THIS WILL
HELP TO REDUCE THE LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE WINDS FROM THESE STORMS.
HOWEVER COLD AIR ALOFT COULD INCREASE THE THREAT OF HAIL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON ARIZONA
300 PM MST WED AUG 28 2002

TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0150 PM    TUCSON                    AZ   1 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   PIMA

0150 PM    TUCSON                    AZ   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   PIMA

0158 PM    TUCSON                    AZ   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   PIMA

0223 PM    MARANA                    AZ   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   PIMA

0223 PM    TUCSON                    AZ   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   PIMA

0230 PM    TUCSON                    AZ   3.00 INCH HAIL