Severe Thunderstorm Warning 288, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
1050 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

ANOTHER UPDATE ON THE WAY FOR TORNADO WATCH 779. NO OTHER CHANGES TO
FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

.TSA...
AR...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 AM ARZ001-002-010-011.
OK...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 4 AM OKZ054>064-067>069.

SULLIVAN

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NOWATA OKLAHOMA TO OKEMAH
OKLAHOMA

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...90

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...95
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...817 PM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...5/0
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...65
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...15

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS NEARING 60 IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A DRYLINE WAS
DEVELOPING FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE TO BRISTOW WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
40 WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM ALONG WITH
ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WILL RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. FORECAST WIND FIELDS WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL BUT
THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PREVENT TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A MUCH LESSER THREAT THAN HAIL
BUT A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ057-061-180215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
708 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CRAIG AND ROGERS COUNTIES
   UNTIL 815 PM CST...

AT 708 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTH OF OOLOGAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A PORTION OF
CRAIG AND ROGERS COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH
815 PM CST. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

OKZ070-180445-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

TORNADO WATCH #189 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MUSKOGEE COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.

OKZ070-180445-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1039 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

TORNADO WATCH #778 THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MUSKOGEE COUNTY HAS BEEN
CANCELLED.