Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 287, NWS Tulsa, OK

December 17, 2002Ottawa County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Dec 17, 2002, 7:57 PM CST for Ottawa County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 33 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Dec 17, 2002, 7:57 PM CST (01:57 UTC)
Expired
Dec 17, 2002, 8:30 PM CST
In force
33 min
Issued by
NWS Tulsa, OK
Area
Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Ottawa County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 115 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

IssuedProductOfficeLasted
Dec 17, 7:35 PM CSTTornado WatchSPC5 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 2.0 hours before the alert went out and 92 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2002-12-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 39 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Springfield, MO at 00:00Z on 2002-12-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 267 square meters per square second.19395878Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
39 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-55 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1087 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
48 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
267 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
432 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

653 
WUUS54 KTSA 180157
SVRTUL
OKC115-180230-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
757 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN OTTAWA COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA

* UNTIL 830 PM CST

* AT 757 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 6
  MILES WEST OF COMMERCE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* SOME LOCATIONS NEAR THE PATH OF THIS STORM INCLUDE...MIAMI...
  COMMERCE...QUAPAW AND PICHER.

HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKLES AND WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED 
IN THE WARNED AREA. STAY INDOORS AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS UNTIL THE 
STORM HAS PASSED.

A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP SUDDENLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. BE ALERT FOR RAPIDLY
CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS AS STORMS APPROACH.

LAT...LON 3699 9502 3684 9500 3703 9447 3723 9460

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Dec 17, 7:48 PM CST, 9 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Dec 17, 7:48 PM CST, 9 minutes before
EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
748 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

UPDATE PENDING FOR TORNADO WATCH. WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP UP POPS IN
AND NEAR THE WATCH AREA AS STORMS FIRING IN REGION OF STRONG LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH LEFT FRONT QUAD OF JET. STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY GO
SEVERE GIVEN SHEAR PROFILES OVER NE OK AND NW ARK.

UPDATE OUT MOMENTARILY.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SULLIVAN
Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 17, 1:00 PM CST, 6 hours 57 minutes before
ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NOWATA OKLAHOMA TO OKEMAH
OKLAHOMA

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...90

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...95
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...817 PM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...5/0
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...65
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...15

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS NEARING 60 IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A DRYLINE WAS
DEVELOPING FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE TO BRISTOW WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
40 WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM ALONG WITH
ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WILL RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. FORECAST WIND FIELDS WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL BUT
THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PREVENT TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A MUCH LESSER THREAT THAN HAIL
BUT A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Dec 17, 7:08 PM CST, 49 minutes before
OKZ057-061-180215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
708 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CRAIG AND ROGERS COUNTIES
   UNTIL 815 PM CST...

AT 708 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTH OF OOLOGAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A PORTION OF
CRAIG AND ROGERS COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH
815 PM CST. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Dec 17, 7:24 PM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Rogers51 min
Dec 18, 12:09 AM CSTSevere Thunderstorm WarningTSACraig, Nowata51 min
Dec 18, 12:27 AM CSTTornado WarningTSACraig, Ottawa48 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.