Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
340 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

A FEW GIVENS IN IN THIS FORECAST.  ONE OF THEM IS THAT TONIGHT WILL
BE A WINDY AND MILD.  ANOTHER IS THAT IS THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME
STORMS IN THE AREA FROM TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW NIGHT.

DRY LINE LIES JUST WEST OF THE AREA AND SHOULD STAY THERE OR RETREAT
SLIGHTLY TONIGHT BEFORE STARTING TO PROGRESS EAST TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT.  WITH DEW POINTS IN THE 50S...ELEVATED INSTABILITY
...A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET AND A WIND MAX ALOFT PROGGED TO ALL MEET
OVER THE AREA LATER THIS EVENING STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE LIKELY.
SPCS OUTLOOK LOOKS GOOD.  PER SPCS DAY 2 OUTLOOK AND THE EXPECTED
PROGRESS OF THE DRY LINE...CHANCES OF RAIN SHOULD SHIFT EAST
TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. EXPECT DRY AND COOLER WEATHER THURSDAY.

ONE BIG QUESTION IS HOW WARM IT WILL GET TOMORROW.  THIS DEPENDS A
LOT ON COOLING WITH THE DRY LINE AND CLOUDS.  PROBABLY WILL BE SOME
HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE WHOLE AREA AND MAYBE SOME LOW CLOUDS IN THE
MORNING IN THE EAST.  DO EXPECT SOME SUN THOUGH AND WITH TEMPS
EXPECTED TO START OUT ABOVE THE GFS MOS EXPECT THEM TO TOP OUT ABOVE
THE GFS MOS.

WITH WINDS DYING OFF...CLOUDS DECREASING AND DEW POINTS FALLING
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE DRAMATICALLY COOLER THAN TONIGHT AND GFS
READINGS ARE NOT TOO FAR OFF.  THURSDAY SHOULD BE DRAMATICALLY
COOLER THAN WEDNESDAY AS WELL AS 8H TEMPS FALL.  SHOULD SEE PLENTY
OF SUN THURSDAY AS EXPECT WRAP-AROUND CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO BE WELL
NORTH AND EAST OF HERE.

THE EXTENDED PART OF THE FORECAST LOOKS QUIET WITH SEASONABLE TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MAINLY DRY WEATHER.  A PASSING
SHORTWAVE AND WEAK FRONT MAY SCARE UP A SHOWER SATURDAY.  ANOTHER
WAVE IS EXPECTED TUESDAY AND COULD POSE AS A DECENT CHANCE OF
RAIN.

TUL  54  68  38  54 /  30  20  10  10
FSM  56  71  44  58 /  50  40  30  10
MLC  58  71  43  58 /  30  20  10  10
BVO  53  67  36  54 /  30  20  10  10
FYV  54  67  43  57 /  50  40  30  10
BYV  52  66  43  56 /  50  40  30  10
MIO  54  67  38  54 /  50  20  10  10
MKO  57  70  42  57 /  40  20  10  10
F10  57  70  40  56 /  30  20  10  10
HHW  60  74  46  60 /  30  30  30  10

FORECAST ID= 17
.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM NOWATA OKLAHOMA TO OKEMAH
OKLAHOMA

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...90

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...95
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...817 PM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...5/0
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...65
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...15

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

.DISCUSSION...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
DEWPOINTS NEARING 60 IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. A DRYLINE WAS
DEVELOPING FROM NEAR BARTLESVILLE TO BRISTOW WITH DEWPOINTS AROUND
40 WEST OF THE DRYLINE.

THE DRYLINE WILL RETREAT A LITTLE BACK TO THE WEST THIS EVENING AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S NORTH AND WEST OF
TULSA TO THE LOWER 60S IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA THIS EVENING WHICH WILL ALLOW
ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNSET.
FAVORABLE POSITIONING OF AN UPPER LEVEL WIND MAXIMUM ALONG WITH
ELEVATED LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4 WILL RESULT IN A FEW SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. FORECAST WIND FIELDS WILL BE
VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL BUT
THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PREVENT TORNADIC
DEVELOPMENT. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE A MUCH LESSER THREAT THAN HAIL
BUT A FEW WIND GUSTS OF 60 TO 70 MILES AN HOUR WILL BE POSSIBLE DUE
TO THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS.

THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND SUNRISE WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED IN THE OUTLOOK AREA THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
THERE WILL BE ANOTHER CHANCE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS EAST OF THE DRYLINE. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ057-061-180215-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
708 PM CST TUE DEC 17 2002

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR CRAIG AND ROGERS COUNTIES
   UNTIL 815 PM CST...

AT 708 PM CST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTH OF OOLOGAH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THIS STORM WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH. A PORTION OF
CRAIG AND ROGERS COUNTIES WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS THROUGH
815 PM CST. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
WARNINGS ARE ISSUED.