Severe Thunderstorm Warning 133, NWS Topeka, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
305 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

...MAIN CONCERN IS THE TIMING/AMOUNT OF PRECIP FOR TODAY/TONIGHT...

NONE OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE HANDLED CONVECTION WELL OVER THE
PAST 24-36 HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS HAVE A WEAK
SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA TOWARD 12Z...AND THIS MAY BE THE CAUSE
OF THE SOME OF THE CONVECTION DEVELOPING WEST OF EMPORIA.  THIS
SYSTEM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH ANOTHER DUE THIS AFTERNOON.

WHILE RAIN APPEARS TO BE A CERTAINTY FOR TODAY...AM CONCERNED THAT
THE BEGINNING OF MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY MAY BE DELAYED UNTIL AT
LEAST NOON FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA.  WILL PHASE IN THE PRECIP
WITH LIKELY NORTHCENTRAL AND CHANCE REST OF AREA THIS MORNING...THEN
LIKELY ALL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

PLAN TO USE A FROPA FASTER THAN ETA...BUT MAYBE A SHADE SLOWER THAN
THE AVN.

WILL SPEED UP ENDING OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN COUNTIES TO 06Z
WEDNESDAY.  ONLY PLAN TO INCLUDE A CHANCE FOR RW- IN THE EXTREME
SOUTHEAST FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY MORNING (12-15Z) AS THE H500 TROF
MOVES OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

COOL AND DRY AIR WILL REMAIN IN PLACE WEDNESDAY...BUT SUNNY SKIES
WILL ALLOW ABOUT 56 DEGREES MORE WARMING ON THURSDAY...WITH
MID/UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS SOUTH WINDS BEGIN TO RETURN.

ROGERS

.TOP...NONE

KSZ010>012-022>024-026-035>040-054>056-058-059-042200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
906 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

STORM SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL KANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT THIS
MORNING. THE COLD FRONT STRETCHES FROM NEAR WICHITA TO TOPEKA.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN THREAT FORM THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AS THE MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. BECAUSE
OF THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THESE STORMS...THERE IS LITTLE THREAT FOR
TORNADOES.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA OUTLETS FOR
THE LATEST SEVERE WEATHER INFORMATION FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TOPEKA.

WOLTERS