Severe Thunderstorm Warning 159, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
306 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2002

COLD FRONT HAS STALLED ALONG A STERLING CITY...WINTERS...CROSS PLAINS
LINE AT 20Z...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO THE NORTH AND 80S TO THE
SOUTH. CLEARING FROM EAST TO WEST HAD TAKEN PLACE SOUTH OF THE
FRONT...DUE TO OUTFLOW FROM A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THAT MOVE THROUGH
BROWN COUNTY MID MORNING. ATMOSPHERE WAS UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY. 17Z
SATELLITE BASE CAPES IN OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES WERE AROUND 2500 J/KG.
TOWARD THE BIG BEND AND TRANSPECOS CAPES WERE 4500 J/KG. CAP WAS NEARLY
NON EXISTANT WITH SATELLITE BASED CINH VALUES CLOSE TO ZERO.

BEST CHANCES OF STORM DEVELOPMENT ARE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT
TODAY. FRONT AND OLD THUNDERSTORM BOUNDARIES WILL HELP INITIATE STORMS.
ALSO...STORMS THAT FORM IN THE TRANSPECOS AREAS WILL MOVE EAST INTO
EDWARDS PLATEAU.  WITH FAIRLY WEAK WINDS ALOFT...STORM SPEED WILL BE
SLOW SO THERE WILL BE THE THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS. SINCE ITS BEEN
SO DRY IN THE CONCHO VALLEY...EDWARDS PLATEAU AND HEARTLAND FOR THE
MONTH OF MAY...WILL NOT PUT OUT A FLASH FLOOD WATCH AT THIS TIME
HOWEVER. HAIL WILL AGAIN BE THE BIGGEST THREAT. THOUGH SMALL...WITH
WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR ALONG FRONT (LIGHT NORTH EAST WINDS NEAR SURFACE TO
SOUTH ALOFT) THERE IS A THAN OF A COUPLE ROTATING STORMS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...SOME UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE INDICATED AS A SHORTWAVE
MOVES NORTHEAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO...THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE ON MONDAY. WESTERN SECTIONS ARE MORE FAVORED FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE BIG COUNTRY HAVING THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON MEMORIAL DAY.

A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS WILL EXIST TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...AS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS WILL HAVE NORTH/NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.

PRELIMS...

ABI 060/082/064/083/066  3243
SJT 066/084/065/084/067  7232
JCT 067/085/065/087/067  7222

.SJT...NONE.

04

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-252245-

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
153 PM CDT SAT MAY 25 2002

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.  LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE POSSIBLE.

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL RESIDE OVER WEST CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AS IT HAS STALLED ACROSS THE CONCHO VALLEY
AND HEARTLAND THIS AFTERNOON. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY
TONIGHT.

WITH NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES...DEEP MOISTURE AND UPPER SUPPORT...THERE
IS NO DOUBT SEVERE STORMS WILL POP UP SOMEWHERE IN W CENTRAL TEXAS
THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.  THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
INCLUDE THE CONCHO VALLEY...THE HEARTLAND...EDWARDS PLATEAU...AND
THE NORTHWEST HILL COUNTRY.  THERE MAY BE A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE
BIG COUNTRY...BUT THE MAIN THREAT APPEARS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING
CITIES...OZONA...SONORA...SAN ANGELO...BALLINGER...BROWNWOOD...
BRADY...MENARD...JUNCTION AND MASON.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE SEE STATEMENTS AND OUTLOOKS FROM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICES ACROSS TEXAS...OKLAHOMA...AND NEW
MEXICO.

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