Special Marine Warning 96, NWS Philadelphia/Mount Holly

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1105 AM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

HAVE UPDATED FCST TO...GO WITH VARIABLE CLOUDINESS THIS AFTN
RATHER THAN MOSTLY CLOUDY BASED ON CURRENT CONDS AND SAT PIX.
ALSO RAISED TEMPS AND HEAT INDICES A NOTCH MOST ZONES TO REFLECT
ADDED HEATING FROM THE ADDITIONAL SS. REST OF FCST LOOKS GOOD
FOR NOW WITH SHWRS/TSTMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTN AND EVNG...
MORE LIKELY NRN ZONES.

RPW
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PREVIOUS DISC...

NOT MUCH RELIEF EARLY THIS MORNING IN THE BIG CITY AS TEMPS REMAIN
AROUND 80 DEGREES...70S JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE ELSE. WITH LITTLE
RELIEF DURING THE RECENT OVERNIGHTS...SEVERAL CONSECUTIVE DAYS IN
THE 90S...AND PROBABLY THE HIGHEST DEWPOINTS DURING THIS RUN...HAVE
CHOSEN TO KEEP THE HEAT WARNING GOING EVEN THOUGH DB TEMPS SHOULD
DROP A FEW DEGREES TODAY. 92/73 PUTS THE HI AT 100 DEGREES. FAVOR
FWC/MAV NUMBERS.

MODELS HAVE HAD DIFFICULTY THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS WITH PRECIPITATION.
RIGHTLY SO WITH THE LACK OF TRIGGERING MECHANISMS. COLD FRONT TO THE
NORTH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT SOUTH TODAY. THIS SHOULD ACT AS A FOCUS
FOR MOIST CONVECTION TODAY. POPS WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS THE NRN
ZONES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH AKQ WILL DROP THE LIKELY POPS WE HAD
GOING ACROSS THE SRN ZONES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY. PW/S REMAIN
HIGH...AS DOES FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE DUE TO THE RECENT DRY WEATHER.
STILL CAN/T RULE OUT LOCALIZED FLOODING THOUGH. THIS A GREATER
THREAT THAN ORGANIZED SEVERE.

WILL KEEP POPS IN THE EVENING TONIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTH AND PAST
MIDNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THE BOUNDARY IN THIS VICINITY. CAN/T
RULE OUT MOIST CONVECTION TOMORROW AFTERNOON AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE PRESENT AND ETA WIND FIELDS SUGGEST THE SAME DECAYING
BOUNDARY HANGING AROUND. AN IMPEDING FACTOR AND DIFFERENT FROM
TODAY...THE H5 TROF AXIS WILL SHIFT EAST TOMORROW PUTTING US IN A NW
FLOW. HAVE THROWN IN 20 POPS. TEMPS SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER. THUS DO NOT FAVOR THE ETA MOS GUIDANCE.

TOOK OUT THE PRECIP SUNDAY NIGHT AS WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL REMAIN ENTRENCHED. WILL LEAVE PRECIP IN FOR MONDAY...BUT WOULD
NOT BE AT ALL SURPRISED TO SEE A DRY START TO THE NEXT WORK WEEK.

MARINE REMAINS QUIET.

.PHI...
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY FOR ZONE DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY FOR ZONES NJZ015...NJZ017>019.
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING TODAY FOR ZONES PAZ067>071.
MARINE...NONE.

DEZ003-004-192100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - VERY HEAVY RAIN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
159 PM EDT FRI JUL 19 2002

...HEAVY RAIN OVER COASTAL SUSSEX COUNTY DELAWARE...
...INTENSE LIGHTNING WITH THIS STORM...

A SERIES OF THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FORMED OVER THE DELAWARE BEACHES AND
ARE MOVING VERY SLOWLY. RADAR INDICATES THAT AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OF
RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE PAST HOUR. IF THESE STORMS DONT MOVE INTO
THE NEARSHORE WATERS SEVERAL MORE INCHES OF RAIN COULD FALL FLOODING
SOME OF THE ROADWAYS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING WAS ALSO OBSERVED WITH THIS
STORMS.

EBERWINE