Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
252 AM CST MON OCT 28 2002

CONVECTION ONGOING OVER THE CWA AS YET ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH
TRAVERSES THE AREA AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.  ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY...ROTATION WITH
SOUTHERN EXTENT OF CONVECTION TO PRODUCE HAIL.  THINKING SEVERITY
OF STORMS SHOULD DECREASE WITH TIME.

WILL CONTINUE WET FORECAST TODAY...BUT WILL TAPER POPS IF NECESSARY
OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...SINCE BETTER SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
EXPECTED OVER NORTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA.  SEVERE THREAT APPEARS
LIMITED DUE TO TIMING OF PASSAGE OF STORM SYSTEM...THE LACK OF
INSTABILITY DUE TO PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER...AND RRQ OF H25 JET WILL
ALREADY BE FURTHER EAST.  ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE
DUE TO COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT WITH TROUGH...AND ISOLATED SEVERE
WINDS DUE TO MID LEVEL WIND SPEEDS AND DRYING.  WILL CLEAR SKIES FROM
WEST TO EAST AS GOOD SUBSIDENCE WILL FOLLOW TROUGH.  TEMPS SHOULD
COOL OFF NICELY TONIGHT AS WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS DIMINISH...BUT ADVECT
DRIER AIR INTO AREA OVER MOIST GROUND MOST LOCATIONS.  TUESDAY
PROMISES TO BE A BIT MORE SUNNY THAN LATE...AND WITH A DOWNSLOPE WIND
...WARMER.  MOIST GROUND WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS A BIT THOUGH. MOSTLY
CLEAR AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD YIELD COOL TEMPS AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT...NOT TO MENTION ONSET OF COLD FRONT IN THE NORTHERN
ZONES.  AM TENDING TOWARD ETA SOLUTION AS FAR AS FRONTAL PROGRESS...
SINCE ITS DEPICTING A SIMILAR SOLUTION TO ECMWF A DAY OR TWO AGO.
FUNKY POSITIVELY TILTED MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER NORTHERN PLAINS WOULD
ARGUE AGAINST A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE...BUT AS WE JUST SAW WITH THE
AIRMASS WEVE BEEN DEALING WITH FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS...IF THE
AIRMASS IS DENSE ENOUGH...IT WILL COME ON DOWN.  POST FRONTAL
CLOUDINESS...OR THE LACK THEREOF...WILL PRESENT A PROBLEM FOR HIGH
TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY.  FOR NOW...WILL CONTINUE WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
COOLER THAN GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES.

IN THE EXTENDED...WILL GO AHEAD AND ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN TO
MAINLY NORTHERN ZONES AS ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE INCREASES ON THE 298K
SURFACE.  ATTM...DONT THINK IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH TO MIX WITH OR
CHANGE TO SNOW.  OTHERWISE...WILL MAKE VERY FEW CHANGES TO EXTENDED.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

MAF  69/47/74/44    6-00
LSA  65/44/72/40    6-00
6R6  72/53/76/52    2-00
MRF  70/38/73/39    2000
CNM  69/43/75/43    5000

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

AKL

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-281100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
311 PM CST SUN OCT 27 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO.

.TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 500 AM THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL AND FLOODING RAINS THE CONCERN.  THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT IS WEST OF A LINE FROM
GARDEN CITY TO PECOS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY. WITH THE GROUND EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SATURATION FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN.  UPDATES MAY INCLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.