Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Midland/Odessa, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
150 PM CST SUN OCT 27 2002

LOW CLOUDS AND FOG THIS MORNING STARTED TO LIFT FINALLY BY NOON AT
KMAF AND EARLIER ELSEWHERE.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER SOUTHERN NM AND
FAR W TEXAS OUT AHEAD OF THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING
TOWARD W TEXAS.

THINGS STARTING TO SHAPE UP FOR A PRETTY GOOD RAIN EVENT FOR THE
PERMIAN BASIN AREA TONIGHT.  THERE IS ALSO THE POSSIBILITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER IN THE AREA.  100 TO 120KT JET AT 250MB IS MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA WITH 50 TO 60KT AT 500MB SETTING UP GOOD VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  850MB WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS LAST
NIGHT...BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE GOOD WAA AND MODERATE MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER LEVELS OVER THE PERMIAN BASIN.  WILL KEEP
GOING FORECAST FOR TONIGHT AS IS AND KEEP SEVERE WORDING AS WELL.
THINK STRONG CONVECTION WILL START AFTER DARK WEST OF KMAF AND THEN
SPREAD EAST OVERNIGHT.  STORMS WILL BE MOVING QUICKLY WITH THE STRONG
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS...SO DAMAGING WINDS MAY ALSO BE A THREAT
ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL IF THAT MOMENTUM IS BROUGHT TO THE SURFACE.
SINCE RAIN AREA MAY BE FAIRLY LARGE...WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THIS
SITUATION OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING.  STORMS MAY
CONTINUE INTO THE MORNING HOURS ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT OF THE
AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.  AS THE TROUGH PASSES...WILL
PROBABLY START TO SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT
FOR POSSIBLY OUT EXTREME EASTERN COUNTIES. TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY SHOULD ALSO REMAIN DRY.

THE NEXT MAIN FEATURE IS THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO
THE AREA MID-WEEK.  WILL OPT TO FOLLOW THE HIGHER RESOLUTION ECMWF
AND MESOETA AS THEY SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE FRONT BETTER THAN THE
GFS...AND KEEP FORECAST AS IT IS.  PRECIP WITH THE FRONT INITIALLY
LOOKS VERY LIGHT IF ANY...AND WILL NOT INSERT ANY POPS AT THIS
TIME.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

MAF  53/69/49/75    762-
LSA  48/65/45/72    762-
6R6  59/72/53/75    332-
MRF  47/70/40/73    42--
CNM  48/69/44/76    54--

.MAF...
TX...NONE.
NM...NONE.

SN

NMZ027>029-033-034-TXZ045>048-050>053-057>063-067>070-074-075-
079>082-258-281100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIDLAND/ODESSA TX
311 PM CST SUN OCT 27 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST TEXAS AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW
MEXICO.

.TONIGHT...

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS
REGION THROUGH EARLY EVENING WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN CONCERN.

BETWEEN 1000 PM AND 500 AM THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE
WITH HAIL AND FLOODING RAINS THE CONCERN.  THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS AND HEAVY RAIN LATE TONIGHT IS WEST OF A LINE FROM
GARDEN CITY TO PECOS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

.MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA
MONDAY. WITH THE GROUND EXPECTED TO BE NEAR SATURATION FLOODING AND
FLASH FLOODING IS A CONCERN.  UPDATES MAY INCLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH.  NO ADDITIONAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED
TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.