Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Jackson, KY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON KY
220 AM EDT THU MAY 02 2002

STILL PLENTY OF CHALLENGES IN THE SHORT TERM. FCST CONCERNS INCLUDE
SLIGHT RISK OF SVR TODAY...TIMING OF FROPA/MAX TEMPS AND HEAVY RAIN
POTENTIAL.

05Z SFC CHART SHOWS THAT THE WARM FRONT HAS NOW LIFTED JUST NORTH OF
THE OHIO RIVER BUT ANOTHER PSEUDO WARM FRONT IS MOVG NE ACROSS TN.
MAIN SFC LOW IS DEEPENING AND IS NOW OVER CNTRL IN. RADARS SHOWING
THAT MOST OF THE INTENSE STORMS HAVE ALSO LIFTED NORTHWARD WITH JUST
A SCATTERING OF SHRAS HERE AND THERE ACROSS TN AND KY. THINGS
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET FOR A LITTLE WHILE EARLY THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE MAIN COLD FRONT GETS A LITTLE CLOSER TO THE AREA.

EXPECTING FROPA AROUND 18Z IN THE NORTH TODAY AND 22Z OR SO ACROSS
THE SOUTH. WITH HIGH PWS IN PLACE HEAVY PCPN STILL NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION ESP CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES. DONT PLAN ON ISSUING A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ATTM BUT FFG VALUES ARE LOW AND WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THINGS VERY CLOSELY. FCST SOUNDINGS INDICATE VERY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS UNTIL FROPA THIS AFTERNOON. THE NEW DAY 1 SPC HAS THE
CNTRL AND SOUTHERN-EASTERN CWA STILL IN A SLIGHT RISK AND THIS SEEMS
REASONABLE ATTM. TEMPS TODAY WILL BE A TOUGH CALL. EXPECT COOLER
READINGS IN THE NORTH WITH TEMPS FALLING IN THE AFTERNOON. WITH
FROPA A LITTLE LATER ACRSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH AND SUCH WARM READINGS
ONGOING NOW...MOST AREAS WILL PROBABLY SEE MID 70S OR SO TODAY.
NOTED THE 74 AT BWG/76 AT BNA AND 81 AT MEM AT 2 AM.

WILL HAVE TO KEEP SOME POPS GOING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 2/3 OF THE
CWA...MAINLY THIS EVENING OR UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT. CONSIDERABLY
COOLER WITH LOWS 40-45 OR SO. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY FOR
A QUIET DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 60S.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO INCR THE CLOUDS AND PCPN CHANCES FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SAT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN 1/2 OR 2/3 OF THE CWA AS A WAVE
RIDES UP ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS THE TN VALLEY. WILL KEEP SOME CHC
POPS GOING IN THE DATA BASE. SAT AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOULD BE
DRY. BASED ON THE LATEST RUN OF THE AVN...SUNDAY LOOKS DRY ATTM AND
I WILL CONSIDER REMOVING POPS FROM THE DATA BASE. NO OTHER CHANGES
PLANNED FOR THE REST OF THE EXTENDED AT THIS TIME.

AS STATED ABOVE THE HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A TOUGH CALL TODAY. AVN MOS
LOOKS TOO COLD TODAY AND WILL GO WITH ETA/NGM MOS BLEND. POPS AND
TEMPS LOOK CLOSE AND REASONABLE AFTER TODAY AND WONT DEVIATE
FAR.

WILL TRY TO HAVE SOME WORK ZONES OUT BEFORE TOO AWFUL LONG UNDER
SDFOZFJKL. COORDINATION WELCOME.

WILL ISSUE A NEW SPS LATER THIS MORNING FOR SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE
TODAY.

.JKL...NONE.

HALL