Severe Thunderstorm Warning 382, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...PRELIM
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
224 AM CDT SAT OCT 4 2002

TDY-TNGT
SFC HIGH WILL MOVE EAST TDY THUS ALLOWING SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW.
TEMPS WILL BE A BALANCING ACT BETWEEN MIXING AND EVAPORATION OF SFC
MSTR TDY. BETTER MIXING WILL BE IN WESTERN THIRD OF CWA THUS
RESULTING IN WARMER TEMPS FROM W-E ACROSS CWA. PROFILERS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW MEXICO AND COLORADO ARE ALREADY SOUTH AT 30KTS AT 6Z.
THIS WILL BE THE SIGNATURE OF MSTR RETURNING TO THAT AREA LATE TDY
THEN SHIFTING EASTWARD TOWARDS SOUTH CENTRAL KS LATE TNGHT...AS
DEPICTED BY SPEC HUM VALUES IN 300-310K LAYER BY ETA. ISENTROPIC LIFT
IN 300-310K LAYER ALONG WITH SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY COULD SPARK
SOME ELEVATED CONVECTION CLOSE TO S CNTRL KS LATE TONIGHT. IF THINGS
CAN DEVELOP ETA CROSS SECTIONS SHOW INITIATION CLOSE THAT
AREA...WITH MOVEMENT TOWARDS THE E/SE. WILL KEEP THINGS DRY BUT IT
COULD BE A CLOSE CALL.

SUN-TUE
STRONG CLD FRNT PLOWS THROUGH CWA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY WITH COLD
CANADIAN AIR SPREADING OVER THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...THUS MAKING
HIGH TEMPS DEPENDENT ON FRONTAL TIMING. A SMALL WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIP COULD EXSIST IN SE CWA SUNDAY MORNING...BUT
FAIRLY HEALTHY ISENTROPIC DOWNGLIDE IN 295-305K LAYER OF DRIER AIR
WILL SHUT THINGS DOWN QUICKLY. CLOUDS WILL ERODE QUICKLY FROM NW-SE
WITH THIS STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION DURING THE DAY. EXPECT WELL BELOW
NORMAL TEMPS TO START THE DAY FOR MONDAY MORNING. COULD EVEN
POSSIBLY SEE SOME FROST...BUT WET SOILS FROM RECENT RAINS AND
SOUTHERLY WINDS SHOULD OFFSET THIS SOME. STILL WILL BE THE COLDEST
MORNING IN SOMETIME THOUGH. THE STAR WILL BE OUT IN FULL FORCE AS
SFC HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES ON MONDAY. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER FROM W-E
DUE TO BETTER MIXING IN CENTRAL KS. HIGH PRESS MOVES EAST OF THE
AREA FOR TUES WITH SOME RETURN FLOW BEGINNING...HOWEVER MSTR WILL BE
PUSHED WELL SOUTH AS ANOTHER WEAK FRNT MOVES INTO THE AREA ON TUES.
FRNT SHOULD COME THRU DRY WITH LIMITED MSTR AVAILABLE.

EXTENDED: WED-FRI
ECM/AVN OFFER DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON HANDLING OF NEXT UPPER SYSTEM.
ECM IS MUCH DEEPER WITH WEST COAST SYSTEM ON FRI WHILE AVN DOES SHOW
A WEAK TROUGH OVER THE SAME AREA...BUT FEEL THAT ECM IS DOING BETTER
A JOB GIVEN AMPLIFIED PATTERN WAY UPSTREAM. EITHER SOLUTION SUGGESTS
UPPER FLOW BECOMING MORE SWLY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO WARMING TEMPS FOR
OUR NECK OF THE WOODS. TEMPS SHOULD WARM A FEW DEGREES MORE EACH DAY
WITH FRI APPEARING TO BE THE WARMEST. GOING FCST NUMBERS SHOW THIS
TREND AND WILL NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES. WILL ALSO KEEP THINGS DRY
THROUGH THIS TIME FRAME.

FCSTID = 15/JAKUB

.ICT...NONE

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-041100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
400 PM CDT THU OCT 3 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...
A WARM FRONT, DRAPED FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS, WILL LIFT ACROSS THE WICHITA
COUNTY WARNING AREA TONIGHT AS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER
EASTERN COLORADO, MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST, A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM FAR
WEST TEXAS EAST INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

FOR THIS EVENING, THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL, WITH
ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS.

LATER TONIGHT, AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES WESTERN OKLAHOMA, SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL LINE UP ALONG THE BOUNDARY AND SURGE NORTHEAST
INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. WIND PROFILES SUGGEST THE PRIMARY SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS ON THE ORDER OF 60-80 MPH,
ESPECIALLY FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT ONWARD.

IN ADDITION, TORRENTIAL RAINS ARE LIKELY, AND WITH MUCH OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS HAVING RECEIVED 3-6 INCH RAINFALLS FROM LAST NIGHTS
THUNDERSTORMS, WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS LIKELY TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTH-
CENTRAL KANSAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA, KANSAS
218 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1005 PM    HESSTON                   KS   65 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
10/03/02   HARVEY                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER

1022 PM    HILLSBORO                 KS   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
10/03/02   MARION                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER

1023 PM    COLWICH                   KS   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
10/03/02   SEDGWICK                       REPORTED BY EOC

1040 PM    VALLEY CENTER             KS   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
10/03/02   SEDGWICK                       REPORTED BY SPOTTER

1115 PM    WICHITA                   KS   FLASH FLOOD
10/03/02   SEDGWICK                       TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED
                                          DOUGLAS AND WEST STREETS
                                          HAD WATER COVERING THE
                                          ROADS. SEVERAL CARS WERE
                                          STALLED.

1124 PM    5 S CONWAY SPRINGS        KS   FLASH FLOOD
10/03/02   SUMNER                         LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          HIGHWAY K-49 REPORTED WATER
                                          OVER ROADWAY.

1125 PM    5 E AUGUSTA               KS   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
10/03/02   BUTLER                         REPORTED BY SPOTTER

1142 PM    ROSE HILL                 KS   FLASH FLOOD
10/03/02   BUTLER                         LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED 6
                                          INCHES OF WATER COVERING
                                          THE ROAD.

1142 PM    ANDOVER                   KS   60 MPH TSTM WIND GUST
10/03/02   BUTLER                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

0013 AM    5 S CONWAY SPRINGS        KS   FLASH FLOOD
10/04/02   SUMNER                         LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          WATER COVERED HIGHWAY K-49
                                          AND A FEW PLACES ON HIGHWAY
                                          81

0103 AM    WICHITA                   KS   FLASH FLOOD
10/04/02   SEDGWICK                       LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          WATER COVERED THE
                                          INTERSECTION OF 2ND AND
                                          OLIVER AND THE 1200 BLOCK
                                          OF WEST PAWNEE.

COX/KETCHAM

KSZ069>072-083-092>096-098>100-040800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
228 AM CDT FRI OCT 4 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH NUMBER 718 HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
ALL THE COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT FAR SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT.  HOWEVER, THE STORMS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS. THEREFORE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL BE
CANCELED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION.

FRANK