Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 AM CDT TUE JUN 4 2002

FCST FOCUS ON EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION ALONG AND NEAR BOUNDARY NEXT
24 HOURS.

WILL LEAN TOWARD AN AVN/ETA SOLUTION FOR PROCESSES THIS CYCLE.

SFC FRONT SLOWLY MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA EARLY THIS MORNING.
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION IS STILL LIMITED TO AREAS WELL NORTH OF THE
BOUNDARY GIVEN CAPPING INVERSION FROM 800-700MB. HOWEVER AREA
PROFILERS SHOW STRONG SPEED CONVERGENCE IN THE 950-900MB LEVEL.
REGION RADAR IS NOW PICKING UP WEAK RETURNS. A VERY MOIST 850MB FLOW
PERSISTS WITH DEWPOINTS OF +12 TO +15C AT THE MOMENT. WATER VAPOR
SHOWS ONE UPPER WAVE ACROSS THE DAKOTAS WITH ANOTHER ACROSS AZ.

FOR TODAY...VERY DIFFICULT FCST FOR EXCESSIVE RAINS WITH SOME
INGREDIENTS IN PLACE WHILE OTHERS...MAINLY TONIGHT ARE NOT.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS SUGGESTS STRONG PRESSURE ADVECTION WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON IN THE 300-315K LEVEL. THIS ALONG
WITH STRONG MORNING LOW LEVEL MASS CONVERGENCE SHOULD ACT TO
LIFT AND COOL THE CAPPING INVERSION...EFFECTIVELY ELIMINATING IT BY
AFTERNOON. MORE DYNAMICAL FORCING IN THE FORM OF RISING THETA SFCS
SUPPORTED BY INTENSIFYING UPPER DIV WITHIN REGION OF RIGHT ENTRANCE
REGION OF ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET STREAK WILL PROVIDE A
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR ADDITIONAL STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. IF...IF
SOME SUN CAN ACT TO DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE FURTHER LOOK FOR
CAPES ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2500 J/KG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIRD OF
THE CWA. 850-300MB MEAN WIND AND FCST STORM MOTION WOULD SUGGEST A
SLOW EAST NORTHEAST MOVEMENT ALONG THE FRONT WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
TRAINING.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM ICT TO CNU BY LATER TODAY
ARE FCST TO EXCEED 1.6 INCHES. WILL THEREFORE KEEP LIKELY POPS AND
WILL ISSUE A LOW CONFIDENCE FFA FOR AREAS NEAR THE SFC FRONT WITHIN
AREA OF HIGHER MOISTURE FOR MAINLY LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING FOR
SOME THREAT OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

BY TONIGHT...ALL MODELS ARE FCSTING HEAVY RAIN INGREDIENTS TO SHIFT
SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA. THEREFORE...IF MORE WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION
DOES NOT MATERIALIZE BY LATE DAY...CHCS APPEAR TO DECREASE TONIGHT
AS LOW LEVEL WAA/THETA E AXIS INSTABILITY, ETC WILL NOT BE PRESENT
ACROSS THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT. LLJ ALSO NON-EXISTENT ACROSS THE CWA
LATER TONIGHT SO WILL CHOOSE TO WORD FFA AS TODAY THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WILL HAVE TO KEEP GENERIC 50-60 POPS TONIGHT FOR THE SOUTH
WITH AREA STILL IN STRONG UPPER DIV.

LITTLE OTHER CHANGES WILL BE NOTED.

FCSTID =11
ICT   82  60  76  57 /  70  60  20   0
HUT   78  58  75  57 /  70  50  10   0
EWK   80  59  75  57 /  70  50  10   0
EQA   82  60  76  57 /  70  60  20   0
WLD   85  60  75  57 /  70  70  30  10
RSL   69  57  75  57 /  70  30  10   0
GBD   73  57  75  57 /  70  30  10   0
SLN   74  57  75  55 /  70  40  10   0
MPR   77  59  75  57 /  70  50  10   0
CFV   88  62  75  58 /  70  70  40  10
CNU   86  61  76  57 /  70  60  30  10
K88   85  61  76  57 /  70  60  30  10

.ICT...
KS...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 700 PM CDT TUESDAY FOR ZONES KSZ069>072...
KSZ083...KSZ092>096...KSZ098>100.