Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
400 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2002

THREAT OF SVR TSTMS/HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT IS THE MAIN CONCERN.

NMRS SMALL CLUSTERS OF TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING OVER THE WSTRN GREAT LKS
RGN...MAINLY NEAR OLD OUTFLOW AND LK-BREEZE BOUNDARIES. OTHERS WERE
DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN ND/N MN...IN ASSOCIATION WITH A POTENT VORT
AND THE RRQ OF 70-80KT UPPER JET. A VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WAS IN
PLACE...ESP OVER MN/WSTRN WI...WHERE MSAS LIS WERE IN THE -8 TO -12
RANGE.

SINCE RELATIVELY WEAK OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES HAVE BEEN ABLE TO GENERATE SOME
CONVECTION THIS AFT...ITS SAFE TO ASSUME THAT THE CAP IS WEAK. THUS...
WOULD EXPECT CONVECTION TO INCREASE RAPIDLY DURING THE LT AFT/EARLY
EVG AS THE UPPER DYNAMICS ARRIVE. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF INSTAB AND AN
EXPECTED INCREASE IN THE UPPER-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...WOULD EXPECT SEVERAL
STORMS TO BECOME SVR. CANNOT RULE OUT THE THREAT CONTINUING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO A CONCERN...GIVEN PRECIP WATER
VALUES 175-200% OF NORMAL...RELATIVELY SLOW MOVMT OF THE CELLS AND STG
DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

WILL MAINTAIN THE THREAT OF STORMS FOR TOMORROW...ESP FOR THE SE 1/2 OF
THE FA...WHERE THE FRONT WILL BE SLOW TO MOVE THROUGH AND CAPES WILL
INCREASE INTO THE 1000-2000 J/KG RANGE. CONVECTION SHOULD CLEAR THE FA
BY LATE AFTERNOON...SO WILL DROP THE WEDS EVG MENTION IN THE ZONES.

DRY AND WARM WX EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AS RIDGING
SFC/ALOFT BUILDS IN. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN EARLY NEXT
WEEK TO ALLOW SCT TSTMS TO DEVELOP...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. EXTENDED
PROGS SHOW HIGH HGTS AND WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPS PERSISTING...SUGGESTING
THAT A STG CAP MAY BE IN PLACE. WENT ABOVE EXTENDED GUIDANCE TEMPS.

.GRB...NONE.

KIECKBUSCH
WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/GRB

WIZ005-010-018-260230-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
805 PM CDT TUE JUN 25 2002

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST WISCONSIN UNTIL MIDNIGHT...

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHWEST WISCONSIN THIS
EVENING.  THE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT FAR NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN BEGINNING ABOUT 9
P.M.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR VILAS...ONEIDA AND
LINCOLN COUNTIES UNTIL MIDNIGHT.  A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS
STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN AND CLOSE TO
THE WATCH AREA.  EVERYONE IN NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST WISCONSIN
SHOULD STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

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