Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 45, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Sep 7, 2002, 12:41 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 34 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 7, 2002, 12:41 PM MST (19:41 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 7, 2002, 1:15 PM MST
- In force
- 34 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 65 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.7 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 112 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -31 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 929 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 53 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 20 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 98 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
292 WUUS55 KFGZ 071941 SVRFGZ AZC025-072015- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 1241 PM MST SAT SEP 7 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... EAST CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...CAMP VERDE...VILLAGE OF OAK CREEK * UNTIL 115 PM MST * AT 1241 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER CHERRY...OR ABOUT 8 MILES WEST OF CAMP VERDE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE TO... 5 MILES NORTHWEST OF LAKE MONTEZUMA...5 MILES NORTHWEST OF RIMROCK...7 MILES SOUTHEAST OF PAGE SPRINGS AT 1250 PM MST OVER VILLAGE OF OAK CREEK...3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BIG PARK AT 1255 PM MST REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM MST SATURDAY EVENING FOR NORTHEASTERN ARIZONA. LAT...LON 3464 11210 3446 11193 3466 11158 3483 11181
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Sep 7, 9:40 AM MST, 3 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 7, 9:40 AM MST, 3 hours 1 minute before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SAT SEP 07 2002
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER
ARIZONA IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.
.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE NOT A PROBLEM TODAY...AND EITHER IS DYNAMICS
AS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SIT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90
KNOT JET MOST OF THE DAY. LACK OF INSOLATION AND A RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT MATTER EITHER...AS CONVECTION ALREADY GOING
STRONG IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES. MODELS SHIFT UPPER DIV
ASSOCIATED WITH JET...AND THE NEXT JET SEEN OFFSHORE...OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP IT THERE FOR AWHILE. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS RAIN...AND LOTS OF IT. STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS WITH 40 KNOTS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALREADY OUT AND THE
TIMING AND LOCATIONS SEEM APPROPRIATE. CURRENT ZONES FEATURE STRONG
WORDING...AND EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN INTACT AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY PER 12Z MODELS...SO STAY
TUNED. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PETERSON.
.FGZ...FFA NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR:
AZZ004>009-012-015-016-018-037-038.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES HI/LO PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TDY TON SUN MON TDY TON SUN MON
FLAGSTAFF 070/049 070/048 071/047 080 080 070 050 060 050
WINSLOW 081/060 080/058 081/057 070 080 060 040 050 050
PRESCOTT 079/058 079/057 080/056 080 080 060 040 050 050
PAGE 076/062 077/061 080/060 080 080 060 040 050 050
WINDOW ROCK 079/052 078/051 079/050 070 080 060 050 060 050
CANYON DE CHELLY 085/059 084/058 085/057 070 080 060 050 060 050
COTTONWOOD 090/066 090/065 091/064 080 080 060 040 050 050
GRAND CANYON 071/050 071/049 072/048 080 080 070 050 060 050
GREER 067/048 067/047 068/046 070 070 060 050 060 050
HEBER 075/052 075/051 076/050 080 080 060 050 060 050
JACOB LAKE 067/049 067/048 068/047 080 080 060 050 050 050
NAVAJO N.M. 077/058 076/057 077/056 070 080 060 050 060 050
PAYSON 083/058 083/057 084/056 080 080 050 060 050 050
SEDONA 087/065 087/064 088/063 080 080 060 040 050 050
SELIGMAN 082/051 082/050 083/049 060 060 050 030 040 040
SHOW LOW 076/058 076/057 077/056 070 070 060 050 060 050
ST. JOHNS 077/056 076/054 077/053 070 070 060 040 050 050
WUPATKI N.M. 083/062 082/060 083/059 080 080 060 050 060 050In the hours before
Special weather statement, Sep 7, 9:30 AM MST, 3 hours 11 minutes before
AZZ004>018-037>040-071930- HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 930 AM MST SAT SEP 07 2002 ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT... ...WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY... DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL ENTRENCHED OVER ARIZONA TODAY WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY OCCURRING WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVED OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING REPORTED. STORMS TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...DESPITE MOVING VERY QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND MAINLY SMALL HAIL. THE BEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM WEST AND NORTH...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER VALLEY AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN TODAY OVER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS...WITH ONE HALF AN INCH TO NEAR AN INCH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION. BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK... RODEO-CHEDISKI BURN AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BURN AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE FIRE SITE IS LOW TO MODERATE TODAY. INDIAN BURN AREA...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BURN AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. FLOODING POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION IS MODERATE TODAY.
The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 6, 9:15 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Gila, Navajo, Yavapai | 9 hr |
| Sep 7, 10:16 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 29 min |
| Sep 7, 11:13 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 32 min |
| Sep 7, 11:42 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 33 min |
| Sep 7, 12:13 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 47 min |
| Sep 7, 12:20 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 115 min |
| Sep 7, 12:21 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 3 hr |
| Sep 7, 3:35 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 35 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.