Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002
Flash Flood Warning 17, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 6, 2002, 9:15 PM MST for 4 counties in Arizona. It was in force for 9 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Sep 6, 2002, 9:15 PM MST (04:15 UTC)
- Expired
- Sep 7, 2002, 6:00 AM MST
- In force
- 9 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
Counties Coconino County, AZ, Gila County, AZ, Navajo County, AZ, Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 35 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:16 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 74 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 66 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -73 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1169 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 42 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 30 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 77 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000
WGUS55 KFGZ 070415
FFWFGZ
AZC005-007-017-025-071300-
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
910 PM MST FRI SEP 6 2002
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A
* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR...
NORTHERN GILA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ARIZONA
SOUTHERN COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
SOUTHWESTERN NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA
YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA
* UNTIL 600 AM MST SATURDAY MORNING
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA
TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...SOME
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. RAINFALL THIS EVENING HAS STARTED
TO SATURATE THE GROUND AND ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF FLASH FLOODING. THE ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THE
STORMS MAY CAUSE STREAMS...CREEKS...AND NORMALLY DRY WASHES IN THE
WATCH AREA TO RISE TO FLOOD LEVEL LATER TONIGHT.
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
WATCH AREA. PEOPLE IN THE WATCH AREA ARE ADVISED TO CHECK
PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED BY LISTENING TO NOAA
WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE MEDIA SOURCE...AND BE READY FOR QUICK
ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.
LAT...LON 3406 11329 3410 11145 3373 11005 3401 11001
3405 11036 3435 11000 3485 11139 3555 11150
3551 11211 3528 11224 3550 11326What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 6, 8:45 PM MST, 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Sep 6, 8:45 PM MST, 30 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
845 PM MST FRI SEP 06 2002
.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER
ARIZONA IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH NUMEROUS HEAVY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
.DISCUSSION...LARGE MCS OVER S AZ/N MEX CONTINUES TO FEED SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ARIZONA. THE GPS IPWV SYSTEM SHOWING PW VALUE
OVER FLG HAS CLIMBED TO OVER ONE INCH THIS EVENING. RADAR DEPICTING
LARGE AREA OF PRECIP/CONVECTION OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY AND THE MOGOLLON
RIM. SOME STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING.
GENERAL MOVEMENT OF THE STORMS IS NE AT 20-30 MPH. SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWING STORMS CONTINUING TO GENERATE OVER SW AZ AND MOVING NORTHWARD.
EXPECT THE RAIN AND STORMS TO LAST THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WITH THE
GROUND SATURATING THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE.
WILL ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH TIL 600 AM MST FOR YAVAPAI COUNTY AND
THE MOGOLLON RIM.
SEE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE WX PATTERN OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EASTERN
PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER N
MEX WILL KEEP THE MOISTURE CONVEYOR BELT ACROSS THE STATE. CWA
LIKELY TO SEE HEAVY PRECIP OVER THE WEEKEND WITH THE FOCUS ON THE
WESTERN HALF. DF
.FGZ...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ZNS 8...15...16...18...38 TIL 600AM MST.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON SAT SUN MON TON SAT SUN MON
FLAGSTAFF 052/065 048/065 045/071 070 080 050 070 040 060
WINSLOW 062/079 060/078 056/081 060 070 050 060 040 050
PRESCOTT 060/074 056/072 055/073 060 070 050 060 040 050
PAGE 063/076 062/075 061/080 060 070 050 060 040 050
WINDOW ROCK 053/071 053/068 047/069 060 070 060 060 050 060
CANYON DE CHELLY 060/077 060/074 054/075 060 070 060 060 050 060
COTTONWOOD 068/085 064/083 063/084 060 070 050 060 040 050
GRAND CANYON 053/066 049/066 046/072 070 080 050 070 040 060
GREER 051/062 047/062 044/068 060 070 050 060 040 060
HEBER 055/070 051/070 048/076 060 070 050 060 040 060
JACOB LAKE 052/062 048/062 045/068 050 060 040 050 030 040
NAVAJO N.M. 059/069 059/066 053/067 050 060 050 050 040 050
PAYSON 060/078 056/076 055/077 050 060 040 050 040 050
SEDONA 067/082 063/080 062/081 060 070 050 060 040 050
SELIGMAN 053/077 049/075 048/076 050 060 040 050 030 040
SHOW LOW 061/071 057/071 054/077 060 070 050 060 040 060
ST. JOHNS 058/075 056/074 052/077 050 060 060 040 050 050
WUPATKI N.M. 064/081 062/080 058/083 060 070 050 060 040 050The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 7, 10:16 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 29 min |
| Sep 7, 11:13 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 32 min |
| Sep 7, 11:42 AM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino, Yavapai | 33 min |
| Sep 7, 12:13 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 47 min |
| Sep 7, 12:20 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 115 min |
| Sep 7, 12:21 PM MST | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 3 hr |
| Sep 7, 12:41 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 34 min |
| Sep 7, 3:35 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 35 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every flash flood warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.