Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 18, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

September 7, 2002Coconino County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Sep 7, 2002, 12:21 PM MST for Coconino County, Arizona. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 7, 2002, 12:21 PM MST (19:21 UTC)
Expired: Sep 7, 2002, 3:15 PM MST
In force: 3 hr
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Coconino County, AZ

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.4 hours before the alert went out and 184 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 112 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 929 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 53 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 20 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 98 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 071921
FFWFGZ
AZC005-072215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1220 PM MST SAT SEP 7 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  EXTREME NORTH CENTRAL COCONINO COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA
  THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF PAGE

* UNTIL 315 PM MST

* AT 1220 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY
  RAIN 10 MILES EAST OF LE CHEE...OR ABOUT 12 MILES EAST OF PAGE...
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BIG FIVE AND ANTELOPE       
  CANYON.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS, ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3683 11149 3670 11134 3697 11094 3699 11147
          3799 10939 3832 10977 3699 11147

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 7, 9:40 AM MST, 2 hours 41 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 7, 9:40 AM MST, 2 hours 41 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST SAT SEP 07 2002

.SYNOPSIS...TROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHWARD OVER
ARIZONA IN ADVANCE OF A STRONG EASTERN PACIFIC TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE. EXPECT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...MOISTURE NOT A PROBLEM TODAY...AND EITHER IS DYNAMICS
AS NORTHERN ARIZONA WILL SIT IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF A 90
KNOT JET MOST OF THE DAY. LACK OF INSOLATION AND A RAIN-COOLED
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL NOT MATTER EITHER...AS CONVECTION ALREADY GOING
STRONG IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES. MODELS SHIFT UPPER DIV
ASSOCIATED WITH JET...AND THE NEXT JET SEEN OFFSHORE...OVER CENTRAL
ARIZONA THIS AFTERNOON AND KEEP IT THERE FOR AWHILE. THE BOTTOM LINE
IS RAIN...AND LOTS OF IT. STRONGER STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE STRONG
WINDS WITH 40 KNOTS IN THE MID-LEVELS...BUT RAIN AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE THE BIGGEST PROBLEMS. FLASH FLOOD WATCH ALREADY OUT AND THE
TIMING AND LOCATIONS SEEM APPROPRIATE. CURRENT ZONES FEATURE STRONG
WORDING...AND EVERYTHING LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW. THIS PATTERN WILL
REMAIN INTACT AT LEAST THROUGH TUESDAY PER 12Z MODELS...SO STAY
TUNED. NO UPDATES NEEDED AT THIS TIME. PETERSON.

.FGZ...FFA NOON UNTIL MIDNIGHT FOR:
       AZZ004>009-012-015-016-018-037-038.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   SUN     MON        TDY TON   SUN   MON
FLAGSTAFF        070/049 070/048 071/047      080 080 070 050 060 050
WINSLOW          081/060 080/058 081/057      070 080 060 040 050 050
PRESCOTT         079/058 079/057 080/056      080 080 060 040 050 050
PAGE             076/062 077/061 080/060      080 080 060 040 050 050
WINDOW ROCK      079/052 078/051 079/050      070 080 060 050 060 050
CANYON DE CHELLY 085/059 084/058 085/057      070 080 060 050 060 050
COTTONWOOD       090/066 090/065 091/064      080 080 060 040 050 050
GRAND CANYON     071/050 071/049 072/048      080 080 070 050 060 050
GREER            067/048 067/047 068/046      070 070 060 050 060 050
HEBER            075/052 075/051 076/050      080 080 060 050 060 050
JACOB LAKE       067/049 067/048 068/047      080 080 060 050 050 050
NAVAJO N.M.      077/058 076/057 077/056      070 080 060 050 060 050
PAYSON           083/058 083/057 084/056      080 080 050 060 050 050
SEDONA           087/065 087/064 088/063      080 080 060 040 050 050
SELIGMAN         082/051 082/050 083/049      060 060 050 030 040 040
SHOW LOW         076/058 076/057 077/056      070 070 060 050 060 050
ST. JOHNS        077/056 076/054 077/053      070 070 060 040 050 050
WUPATKI N.M.     083/062 082/060 083/059      080 080 060 050 060 050

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Sep 7, 9:30 AM MST, 2 hours 51 minutes before

AZZ004>018-037>040-071930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
930 AM MST SAT SEP 07 2002

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA FROM
NOON TODAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF
THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...

DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE IS STILL ENTRENCHED OVER ARIZONA TODAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY OCCURRING WEST OF FLAGSTAFF. MUCH
OF THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA RECEIVED OVER AN
INCH OF RAIN OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME MINOR FLOODING REPORTED. STORMS
TODAY WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN...DESPITE MOVING
VERY QUICKLY TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE STRONGER STORMS TODAY WILL
ALSO PRODUCE STRONG WIND GUSTS...AND MAINLY SMALL HAIL. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAIN TODAY WILL BE FROM THE MOGOLLON RIM WEST AND
NORTH...WITH MORE SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE LITTLE COLORADO RIVER
VALLEY AND FAR EASTERN ARIZONA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER RAIN
TODAY OVER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AREAS...WITH ONE HALF AN INCH TO
NEAR AN INCH OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...

RODEO-CHEDISKI BURN AREA...EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BURN AREA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO AN INCH ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER
SHOWERS. FLOODING POTENTIAL OVER THE FIRE SITE IS LOW TO MODERATE
TODAY.

INDIAN BURN AREA...EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST OVER THE BURN AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THIS REGION IS MODERATE TODAY.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 6, 9:15 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Gila, Navajo, Yavapai	9 hr
Sep 7, 10:16 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	29 min
Sep 7, 11:13 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	32 min
Sep 7, 11:42 AM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino, Yavapai	33 min
Sep 7, 12:13 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Coconino	47 min
Sep 7, 12:20 PM MST	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Coconino	115 min
Sep 7, 12:41 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	34 min
Sep 7, 3:35 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	35 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002 Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.