Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 30, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 15, 2002, 8:53 PM MDT for Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 22 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 15, 2002, 8:53 PM MDT (02:53 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 15, 2002, 9:15 PM MDT
- In force
- 22 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Navajo County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 78 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:55 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 00:00Z, 2.9 hours before the alert went out and 145 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 2255 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 24 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 2 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 7 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
095 WUUS55 KFGZ 160253 SVRFGZ AZC017-160315- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 751 PM MST MON JUL 15 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTH CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA * UNTIL 815 PM MST * AT 751 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER CENTRAL NAVAJO COUNTY...OR ABOUT 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF SNOWFLAKE...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT... RURAL SOUTHERN NAVAJO COUNTY THROUGH 815 PM MST LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3471 11021 3483 11037 3461 11063 3452 11037
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 15, 4:15 PM MDT, 4 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 4:15 PM MDT, 4 hours 38 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST MON JUL 15 2002
.SYNOPSIS...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE DAILY PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
EARLY IN THE WEEK...SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...THIS WILL ALLOW NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. TWO
FEATURES THAT WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TUESDAY...AN
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
A SECOND WAVE MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TUESDAY WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
PLACE SO WE WILL RAMP UP POPS TUESDAY.
MODELS STILL ADVERTISING DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE STATE ON
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY THURSDAY. WE WILL BEGIN TO LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...THINKING
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SCT CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LATEST 18Z RUN DRIES NORTHERN ARIZONA OUT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME EVEN MORE...FOR NOW WE WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY
NORTHWEST AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TC
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON TUE WED THU TON TUE WED THU
FLAGSTAFF 053/079 052/079 053/082 030 050 030 040 020 030
WINSLOW 067/095 067/094 066/095 010 030 040 030 020 020
PRESCOTT 063/090 063/089 062/090 030 040 040 030 020 030
PAGE 077/100 077/099 076/099 020 030 030 030 020 020
WINDOW ROCK 052/086 053/085 052/086 020 040 030 040 020 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 066/095 066/094 066/095 020 030 020 030 020 020
COTTONWOOD 071/102 071/101 070/102 020 030 030 020 020 020
GRAND CANYON 052/088 051/088 052/090 020 040 030 040 020 030
GREER 049/075 048/075 049/078 030 050 030 040 020 030
HEBER 054/085 053/085 054/088 030 050 030 040 020 030
JACOB LAKE 053/077 052/077 053/080 030 040 030 040 020 030
NAVAJO N.M. 065/093 066/091 065/093 020 030 020 030 020 030
PAYSON 064/093 064/092 063/093 030 020 030 020 020 020
SEDONA 069/099 069/098 068/099 020 030 030 020 020 020
SELIGMAN 056/095 056/094 055/095 020 030 030 020 010 020
SHOW LOW 053/085 052/085 053/088 030 050 030 040 020 030
ST. JOHNS 059/089 059/088 060/089 020 040 040 030 020 020
WUPATKI N.M. 070/098 070/097 069/098 020 030 040 030 020 020The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 15, 9:38 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 52 min |
| Jul 15, 9:41 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 109 min |
| Jul 15, 10:00 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 60 min |
| Jul 15, 10:05 PM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 115 min |
| Jul 16, 12:37 AM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 53 min |
| Jul 16, 12:43 AM MDT | Flash Flood Warning | FGZ | Navajo | 107 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.