Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2002

Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 15, 2002Navajo County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Jul 15, 2002, 9:38 PM MDT for Navajo County, Arizona. It was in force for 52 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2002, 9:38 PM MDT (03:38 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2002, 10:30 PM MDT
In force: 52 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Navajo County, AZ

The radar

The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 03:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 3.6 hours before the alert went out and 152 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 19 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -317 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2398 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 27 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 40 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 93 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KFGZ 160341
FFWFGZ
AZC017-160530-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
838 PM MST MON JUL 15 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  CIBECUE CREEK AND THE TOWN OF CIBECUE IN SOUTHWESTERN NAVAJO    
  COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ARIZONA

* UNTIL 1030 PM MST

* AT 834 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY 
  HEAVY RAIN FALLING 11 MILES NORTHWEST OF CIBECUE...OR ABOUT 19 
  MILES SOUTH OF HEBER-OVERGAARD...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

* THE THUNDERSTORM WITH EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE 
  RURAL SOUTHWESTERN NAVAJO COUNTY AT 850 PM MST

DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES OF 1.5 TO 2.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN     
OVER THE HEADWATERS OF CIBECUE CREEK BETWEEN 730 PM AND 830 PM MST. 

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. 

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.

LAT...LON 3423 11073 3402 11063 3398 11044 3406 11031
          3424 11052

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 15, 4:15 PM MDT, 5 hours 23 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 15, 4:15 PM MDT, 5 hours 23 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST MON JUL 15 2002

.SYNOPSIS...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE DAILY PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
EARLY IN THE WEEK...SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...THIS WILL ALLOW NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. TWO
FEATURES THAT WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TUESDAY...AN
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
A SECOND WAVE MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TUESDAY WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
PLACE SO WE WILL RAMP UP POPS TUESDAY.

MODELS STILL ADVERTISING DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE STATE ON
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY THURSDAY. WE WILL BEGIN TO LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...THINKING
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SCT CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LATEST 18Z RUN DRIES NORTHERN ARIZONA OUT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME EVEN MORE...FOR NOW WE WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY
NORTHWEST AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TC
.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON TUE   WED     THU        TON TUE   WED     THU
FLAGSTAFF        053/079 052/079 053/082      030 050 030 040 020 030
WINSLOW          067/095 067/094 066/095      010 030 040 030 020 020
PRESCOTT         063/090 063/089 062/090      030 040 040 030 020 030
PAGE             077/100 077/099 076/099      020 030 030 030 020 020
WINDOW ROCK      052/086 053/085 052/086      020 040 030 040 020 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 066/095 066/094 066/095      020 030 020 030 020 020
COTTONWOOD       071/102 071/101 070/102      020 030 030 020 020 020
GRAND CANYON     052/088 051/088 052/090      020 040 030 040 020 030
GREER            049/075 048/075 049/078      030 050 030 040 020 030
HEBER            054/085 053/085 054/088      030 050 030 040 020 030
JACOB LAKE       053/077 052/077 053/080      030 040 030 040 020 030
NAVAJO N.M.      065/093 066/091 065/093      020 030 020 030 020 030
PAYSON           064/093 064/092 063/093      030 020 030 020 020 020
SEDONA           069/099 069/098 068/099      020 030 030 020 020 020
SELIGMAN         056/095 056/094 055/095      020 030 030 020 010 020
SHOW LOW         053/085 052/085 053/088      030 050 030 040 020 030
ST. JOHNS        059/089 059/088 060/089      020 040 040 030 020 020
WUPATKI N.M.     070/098 070/097 069/098      020 030 040 030 020 020

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 8:53 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Navajo	22 min
Jul 15, 9:41 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Navajo	109 min
Jul 15, 10:00 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Navajo	60 min
Jul 15, 10:05 PM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Navajo	115 min
Jul 16, 12:37 AM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Navajo	53 min
Jul 16, 12:43 AM MDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGZ	Navajo	107 min

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2002 Every flash flood warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.