Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
315 PM MST MON JUL 15 2002

.SYNOPSIS...NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE DAILY PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE INTO THE WEEKEND. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM
EARLY IN THE WEEK...SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF NORTHERN
ARIZONA BY TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS OUT INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS...THIS WILL ALLOW NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPS FOR TUESDAY. TWO
FEATURES THAT WILL HAVE SOME INFLUENCE ON OUR WEATHER TUESDAY...AN
EASTERLY WAVE MOVING NORTH FROM OUT OF THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...AND
A SECOND WAVE MOVE WEST ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. THERE WILL BE
AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TUESDAY WITH WEAK DIVERGENCE ALOFT IN
PLACE SO WE WILL RAMP UP POPS TUESDAY.

MODELS STILL ADVERTISING DRIER AIR COMING INTO THE STATE ON
SOUTHWEST FLOW BY THURSDAY. WE WILL BEGIN TO LOWER POPS WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...HOWEVER WITH WEAK FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS...THINKING
ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE AVAILABLE FOR SCT CONVECTION ON THE HIGHER
TERRAIN AREAS. LATEST 18Z RUN DRIES NORTHERN ARIZONA OUT SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY TIME FRAME EVEN MORE...FOR NOW WE WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY
NORTHWEST AND A CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
TC
.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON TUE   WED     THU        TON TUE   WED     THU
FLAGSTAFF        053/079 052/079 053/082      030 050 030 040 020 030
WINSLOW          067/095 067/094 066/095      010 030 040 030 020 020
PRESCOTT         063/090 063/089 062/090      030 040 040 030 020 030
PAGE             077/100 077/099 076/099      020 030 030 030 020 020
WINDOW ROCK      052/086 053/085 052/086      020 040 030 040 020 030
CANYON DE CHELLY 066/095 066/094 066/095      020 030 020 030 020 020
COTTONWOOD       071/102 071/101 070/102      020 030 030 020 020 020
GRAND CANYON     052/088 051/088 052/090      020 040 030 040 020 030
GREER            049/075 048/075 049/078      030 050 030 040 020 030
HEBER            054/085 053/085 054/088      030 050 030 040 020 030
JACOB LAKE       053/077 052/077 053/080      030 040 030 040 020 030
NAVAJO N.M.      065/093 066/091 065/093      020 030 020 030 020 030
PAYSON           064/093 064/092 063/093      030 020 030 020 020 020
SEDONA           069/099 069/098 068/099      020 030 030 020 020 020
SELIGMAN         056/095 056/094 055/095      020 030 030 020 010 020
SHOW LOW         053/085 052/085 053/088      030 050 030 040 020 030
ST. JOHNS        059/089 059/088 060/089      020 040 040 030 020 020
WUPATKI N.M.     070/098 070/097 069/098      020 030 040 030 020 020

AZZ004>018-037>040-161930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST MON JUL 15 2002

...WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MANY WILL BE SLOW MOVING...INCREASING THE RISK OF URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...

DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE EXISTS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THAT LOSES ITS
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER EARLIEST...LIKELY THE CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS...YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM...YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. MANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING...GRADUALLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF RECENT DAYS...BUT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION DUE TO THE SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...
SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
RODEO-CHEDISKI AND INDIAN BURN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING. THE INDIAN
BURN AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST RISK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

HOWARD

AZZ004>018-037>040-151930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST MON JUL 15 2002

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...

MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA SINCE
YESTERDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO START OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. STORMS WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS FROM THE RIM SOUTH SINCE THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER OVER THIS
AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
RAIN RATES FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR...MAINLY FROM
THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH. THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY WILL BE LOW
AND ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...
SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CHEDISKI-RODEO BURN AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFT SOUTHWEST OFF THE RIM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE INDIAN FIRE
BURN AREA NEAR PRESCOTT.