Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 14, 2002, 7:06 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 24 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 14, 2002, 7:06 PM MST (02:06 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 14, 2002, 7:30 PM MST
- In force
- 24 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 88 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 02:07 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 00:00Z, 2.1 hours before the alert went out and 81 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 210 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -245 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 3046 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 29 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -15 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 51 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
095 WUUS55 KFGZ 150206 SVRFGZ AZC025-150230- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 702 PM MST SUN JUL 14 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF BLACK CANYON CITY * UNTIL 730 PM MST * AT 702 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 13 MILES NORTHEAST OF BLACK CANYON CITY...OR ABOUT 11 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CORDES JUNCTION...MOVING SOUTH AT 25 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT BLACK CANYON CITY AT 725 PM MST INTERSTATE 17 FROM CORDES JUNCTION TO BLACK CANYON CITY THROUGH 730 MPH. THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. IF YOU ARE IN ITS PATH YOU SHOULD PREPARE FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 58 MPH...LARGE HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3406 11218 3402 11190 3429 11172 3436 11210
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 14, 2:10 PM MST, 4 hours 56 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 14, 2:10 PM MST, 4 hours 56 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
210 PM MST SUN JUL 14 2002
.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA
ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE
DAILY PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
WEDNESDAY.
.DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN OVER THE AREA...AS IT DOES A
PORTION OF THE HIGH WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER NORTHWEST PART OF THE STATE ON
MONDAY. NORTHERLY FLOW WILL KEEP NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE A
LITTLE DRIER MONDAY...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS EAST ACROSS THE STATE
DURING THE WEEK...INCREASES OF MOISTURE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FARTHER NORTH BY
MID-WEEK.
.EXTENDED...THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT AS A WEAK TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES
APPROACHES...THAT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE EXTENDED. NOW TO PREDICT THE TIMING OF
THIS IS QUESTIONABLE AND THERE IS AMPLE MOISTURE OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THAT COULD GET PULLED NORTHWARD ON SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW...SO WE WILL KEEP CHANCES OF SHOWERS IN THE EXTENDED FOR NOW.
TC
.FGZ...NONE.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON MON TUE WED TON MON TUE WED
FLAGSTAFF 058/086 057/084 054/084 030 030 020 030 020 040
WINSLOW 068/097 067/095 066/095 030 020 000 020 000 030
PRESCOTT 065/093 065/092 066/092 020 030 020 030 020 040
PAGE 079/102 077/099 077/099 010 000 000 020 000 030
WINDOW ROCK 052/086 053/084 053/085 030 030 020 030 020 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 058/097 059/095 059/095 020 020 010 020 020 040
COTTONWOOD 070/103 070/101 071/101 020 020 020 020 020 030
GRAND CANYON 055/091 054/089 052/089 030 020 010 030 020 040
GREER 052/080 051/078 049/078 040 030 020 040 020 040
HEBER 057/089 056/087 053/087 040 030 020 030 020 040
JACOB LAKE 058/084 057/082 054/082 030 020 010 030 020 040
NAVAJO N.M. 064/091 065/089 065/089 030 020 010 020 020 030
PAYSON 066/093 066/092 065/092 020 020 020 030 020 040
SEDONA 070/100 070/100 069/099 020 020 020 020 020 040
SELIGMAN 060/096 060/095 061/095 020 020 010 020 010 030
SHOW LOW 061/092 060/090 057/090 040 030 020 030 020 040
ST. JOHNS 063/093 062/091 061/091 030 030 020 030 020 040
WUPATKI N.M. 076/100 075/098 074/098 030 020 010 020 020 030In the hours before
Local storm report, Jul 14, 6:14 PM MST, 52 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF ARIZONA
0614 PM MST SUN JUL 14 2002
TIME (MST) .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE ...EVENT/REMARKS...
....COUNTY LOCATION....
0125 PM 6 NE FLAGSTAFF AZ 66 MPH TSTM GUST
07/14/02 COCONINO
0618 PM CAMP VERDE AZ 1.25 INCH HAIL
07/14/02 YAVAPAIThe office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 14, 5:55 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 35 min |
| Jul 14, 6:26 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Gila, Yavapai | 19 min |
| Jul 15, 2:58 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 32 min |
| Jul 15, 3:28 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Coconino | 32 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.