Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
1030 AM MST MON JUL 15 2002

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN OVER THE AREA
ALLOWING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO SETTLE BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL. THE
DAILY PATTERN OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
WELL INTO THE COMING WEEK. THE MAJORITY OF SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WILL BE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM EARLY IN THE
WEEK...SPREADING NORTHWARD OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA BY
TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY.

.DISCUSSION...MCS CIRCULATION WILL AFFECT MAINLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE STATE LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
DYNAMICS. THE ATMOSPHERE IS MORE STABLE OVER WESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE SINCE THIS AREA WAS MOST INFLUENCED BY THE MESO HIGH...SO
EXPECTING A LATER START TIME TO THE CONVECTION IN THE WEST THAN
YESTERDAY.  LOW TO MID LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NORTHWEST AS INFLUENCED
BY THE MESO HIGH... AND FORECAST TO WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON. FLOW IN
THE MID LEVELS IS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO EAST AND WILL HELP STORMS
PROPAGATE SOUTHWEST OFF THE RIM LATE THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH THERE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER THE AREA SINCE
YESTERDAY WITH A LITTLE DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
RIM...SO EXPECTING HEAVIER PRECIP AMOUNTS FROM SOME OF THE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THIS AREA. CONVECTION BEGINNING OVER THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...AND EXPECTING MORE CONVECTION TO FIRE ALONG
THE RIM AND INTO THE CHUSKA AND NORTHEAST PLATEAUS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. TODAYS HIGH TEMP FORECAST LOOKS OK AND PROB OF PRECIP
LOOKS GOOD AS WELL. NO UPDATES PLANNED FOR THIS MORNING.

.FGZ...NONE.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES HI/LO           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TDY TON   TUE     WED        TDY TON   TUE   WED
FLAGSTAFF        082/055 080/054 079/053      030 020 040 030 050
WINSLOW          097/068 095/067 094/066      000 020 020 030 030
PRESCOTT         092/064 090/063 089/062      040 030 040 030 040
PAGE             102/079 100/078 098/077      000 020 020 020 030
WINDOW ROCK      088/052 086/053 083/052      030 020 030 030 040
CANYON DE CHELLY 094/058 092/059 089/058      000 020 020 020 030
COTTONWOOD       103/072 101/071 100/070      040 030 040 030 040
GRAND CANYON     084/054 082/053 081/052      020 020 030 020 040
GREER            078/051 076/050 075/049      040 030 040 030 050
HEBER            087/056 085/055 084/054      040 030 040 030 050
JACOB LAKE       080/055 078/054 077/053      020 020 030 020 040
NAVAJO N.M.      088/056 086/057 083/056      020 020 020 020 030
PAYSON           097/065 095/064 094/063      040 030 040 030 040
SEDONA           101/070 099/069 098/068      030 020 030 020 030
SELIGMAN         095/057 093/056 092/055      040 030 040 030 040
SHOW LOW         088/063 086/062 085/061      040 030 040 030 050
ST. JOHNS        091/063 089/062 088/061      020 030 030 030 040
WUPATKI N.M.     099/071 097/070 096/069      000 020 020 030 030

AZZ004>018-037>040-161930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
940 AM MST MON JUL 15 2002

...WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
MANY WILL BE SLOW MOVING...INCREASING THE RISK OF URBAN AND SMALL
STREAM FLOODING. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THE
WESTERN MOGOLLON RIM...YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE KAIBAB
PLATEAU...

DISCUSSION...DEEP MOISTURE EXISTS OVER MOST OF NORTHERN ARIZONA.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST DEVELOP OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THAT LOSES ITS
OVERNIGHT CLOUD COVER EARLIEST...LIKELY THE CHUSKA
MOUNTAINS...YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND NORTHERN GILA COUNTY
MOUNTAINS. MOST INTENSE STORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE WESTERN MOGOLLON
RIM...YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS...AND THE KAIBAB PLATEAU. MANY STORMS
TODAY WILL BE SLOW MOVING...GRADUALLY DRIFTING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST.
PRECIPITATION RATES WILL BE SIMILAR TO THOSE OF RECENT DAYS...BUT
RAINFALL ACCUMULATION OVER A PARTICULAR LOCATION DUE TO THE SLOW
STORM MOVEMENT WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF URBAN AND SMALL STREAM
FLOODING.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...
SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
RODEO-CHEDISKI AND INDIAN BURN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL INCREASE THE RISK OF FLOODING. THE INDIAN
BURN AREA WILL EXPERIENCE THE GREATEST RISK DUE TO THE LIKELIHOOD OF
STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING OVER YAVAPAI COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

HOWARD

AZZ004>018-037>040-151930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
955 AM MST MON JUL 15 2002

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY ALONG
AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS...AND THE KAIBAB PLATEAU...

MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER MUCH OF NORTHERN ARIZONA SINCE
YESTERDAY. THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO START OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN ARIZONA. STORMS WILL BE MORE
NUMEROUS FROM THE RIM SOUTH SINCE THE MOISTURE IS DEEPER OVER THIS
AREA. EXPECT ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS...SMALL HAIL AND
RAIN RATES FROM AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF PER HOUR...MAINLY FROM
THE MOGOLLON RIM SOUTH. THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING TODAY WILL BE LOW
AND ISOLATED...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE RIM.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...
SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE
CHEDISKI-RODEO BURN AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. AN ISOLATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POSE THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED HEAVY RAIN. AS THE
THUNDERSTORMS DRIFT SOUTHWEST OFF THE RIM LATER THIS AFTERNOON...
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE INDIAN FIRE
BURN AREA NEAR PRESCOTT.