Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 16, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

July 13, 2002Yavapai County, Arizona

NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2002, 4:44 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 21 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 13, 2002, 4:44 PM MST (23:44 UTC)
Expired: Jul 13, 2002, 5:05 PM MST
In force: 21 min
Issued by: NWS Flagstaff, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Yavapai County, AZ

The radar

The Phoenix radar (KIWA), 130 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:47 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Phoenix, AZ (KPSR), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 99 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 187 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -501 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 3324 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 16 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 30 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

399 
WUUS55 KFGZ 132344
SVRFGZ
AZC025-140015-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
441 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 505 PM MST

* AT 441 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY...ABOUT 8
  MILES SOUTH OF YARNELL...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. THIS STORM WAS 
  14 MILES NORTH OF WICKENBURG.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL CROSS THE YAVAPAI...MARICOPA COUNTY 
LINE BY 505 PM MST...

REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY
WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST
OFFICE.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM MST
SATURDAY EVENING FOR CENTRAL ARIZONA.

LAT...LON 3400 11279 3401 11268 3412 11264 3417 11276

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 2:30 PM MST, 2 hours 14 minutes before

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2002

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ON NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AGAIN
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ON SUNDAY...LOOK FOR A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS.

.DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
MST. OTHER COUNTIES IN THE CWFA ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WATCH.

IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. SMALL DISTURBANCES MAKING THEIR  WAY
AROUND THE HIGH...PAIRED WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE  NEXT
FEW DAYS...WILL GENERATE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BY WEDNESDAY...A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH EXTENSIVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. CONVECTION MAY SLOWLY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW FEEDS IN
DEEP...DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWARD

.FGZ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ZONES 08/18/37 UNTIL 900 PM MST.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON SUN   MON     TUE        TON SUN   MON     TUE
FLAGSTAFF        054/084 055/083 054/082      020 040 030 040 030 040
WINSLOW          067/094 068/093 065/092      020 030 020 040 020 040
PRESCOTT         066/091 066/089 065/088      030 050 030 040 030 040
PAGE             078/100 075/096 073/095      000 020 020 030 020 030
WINDOW ROCK      054/086 054/082 053/081      020 040 050 050 030 050
CANYON DE CHELLY 060/092 060/088 059/087      020 030 040 040 020 040
COTTONWOOD       074/102 074/100 073/099      020 040 020 030 020 030
GRAND CANYON     052/087 051/085 051/084      020 030 020 030 020 030
GREER            050/080 051/079 050/078      030 060 060 070 050 070
HEBER            055/089 056/088 055/087      030 060 050 060 040 060
JACOB LAKE       054/082 055/081 054/080      020 030 020 030 020 030
NAVAJO N.M.      058/086 058/082 057/081      020 030 040 040 020 040
PAYSON           067/096 067/094 066/093      030 020 030 040 030 040
SEDONA           072/100 072/098 071/097      020 040 020 030 020 030
SELIGMAN         059/094 059/092 058/091      020 040 020 030 020 030
SHOW LOW         062/090 063/089 062/088      020 040 040 040 030 040
ST. JOHNS        062/088 063/087 060/086      030 040 030 050 030 050
WUPATKI N.M.     070/096 071/095 068/094      020 030 020 050 020 050

The office that day

Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 13, 3:10 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	20 min
Jul 13, 3:11 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	19 min
Jul 13, 3:32 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	28 min
Jul 13, 3:40 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	35 min
Jul 13, 3:43 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	32 min
Jul 13, 4:15 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	30 min
Jul 13, 4:51 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGZ	Yavapai	24 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.