Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2002

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ON NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AGAIN
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ON SUNDAY...LOOK FOR A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS.

.DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
MST. OTHER COUNTIES IN THE CWFA ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WATCH.

IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. SMALL DISTURBANCES MAKING THEIR  WAY
AROUND THE HIGH...PAIRED WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE  NEXT
FEW DAYS...WILL GENERATE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.

IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BY WEDNESDAY...A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH EXTENSIVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. CONVECTION MAY SLOWLY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW FEEDS IN
DEEP...DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWARD

.FGZ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ZONES 08/18/37 UNTIL 900 PM MST.

.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA

CITY             TEMPERATURES LO/HI           PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
                 TON SUN   MON     TUE        TON SUN   MON     TUE
FLAGSTAFF        054/084 055/083 054/082      020 040 030 040 030 040
WINSLOW          067/094 068/093 065/092      020 030 020 040 020 040
PRESCOTT         066/091 066/089 065/088      030 050 030 040 030 040
PAGE             078/100 075/096 073/095      000 020 020 030 020 030
WINDOW ROCK      054/086 054/082 053/081      020 040 050 050 030 050
CANYON DE CHELLY 060/092 060/088 059/087      020 030 040 040 020 040
COTTONWOOD       074/102 074/100 073/099      020 040 020 030 020 030
GRAND CANYON     052/087 051/085 051/084      020 030 020 030 020 030
GREER            050/080 051/079 050/078      030 060 060 070 050 070
HEBER            055/089 056/088 055/087      030 060 050 060 040 060
JACOB LAKE       054/082 055/081 054/080      020 030 020 030 020 030
NAVAJO N.M.      058/086 058/082 057/081      020 030 040 040 020 040
PAYSON           067/096 067/094 066/093      030 020 030 040 030 040
SEDONA           072/100 072/098 071/097      020 040 020 030 020 030
SELIGMAN         059/094 059/092 058/091      020 040 020 030 020 030
SHOW LOW         062/090 063/089 062/088      020 040 040 040 030 040
ST. JOHNS        062/088 063/087 060/086      030 040 030 050 030 050
WUPATKI N.M.     070/096 071/095 068/094      020 030 020 050 020 050

AZZ004>018-037>040-131930-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
935 AM MST SAT JUL 13 2002

...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY MAINLY
SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM...ISOLATED ACTIVITY ELSEWHERE ACROSS
NORTHERN ARIZONA...

SOME CONVECTION IN NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA OVERNIGHT HAS LEFT HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDINESS IN PLACE THAT WILL SLOW THE ONSET OF ISOLATED
CONVECTION ACROSS NORTHERN COCONINO, NAVAJO, AND APACHE COUNTIES.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF THE
MOGOLLON RIM SHOULD FIRE UP WITHOUT MUCH DELAY. THE GENERAL MID AND
UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERNS HAVE CHANGED LITTLE SINCE YESTERDAY.
MOISTURE...HOWEVER...HAS TAKEN A SLIGHT DOWNTURN. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS NO GREATER THAN YESTERDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR UPSTREAM.
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE DROPS OFF UPSTREAM AS WELL. EXPECT
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE TO MIMIC YESTERDAYS ACTIVITY...BUT WITH LESS
INTENSITY. NORTHERN GILA AND EASTERN YAVAPAI COUNTIES WILL AGAIN BE
THE HOTBEDS OF ACTIVITY...THOUGH LIKELIHOOD OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS DIMINISHED FROM YESTERDAY.

BURNED AREA RAIN OUTLOOK...
SMALL AMOUNTS OF RAIN CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING IN BURNED OUT AREAS.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP NEAR THE
RODEO-CHEDISKI BURN AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON...BUT PRECIPITATION WILL
NOT BE HEAVY. AS THE SHOWERS MOVE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINS OVER THE INDIAN FIRE BURN AREA NEAR
PRESCOTT WILL BE MORE LIKELY.

HOWARD