Alert archive / Arizona / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Flagstaff, AZ
NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 13, 2002, 3:43 PM MST for Yavapai County, Arizona. It was in force for 32 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 13, 2002, 3:43 PM MST (22:43 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 13, 2002, 4:15 PM MST
- In force
- 32 min
- Issued by
- NWS Flagstaff, AZ
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County Yavapai County, AZ
The radar
The Flagstaff radar (KFSX), 85 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:42 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Flgstf/Belemont, AZ (KFGZ), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 88 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 330 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -302 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1968 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 32 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 9 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 74 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
144 WUUS55 KFGZ 132243 SVRFGZ AZC025-132315- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ 342 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2002 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL YAVAPAI COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF CORDES JUNCTION * UNTIL 415 PM MST * AT 342 PM MST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER CHERRY...OR ABOUT 9 MILES WEST OF CAMP VERDE. THE STORM WAS NEARLY STATIONARY. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT OR PASS CLOSE TO... 3 MILES SOUTHEAST OF CHERRY AT 415 PM MST * OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE DEWEY-HUMBOLDT...POLAND JUNCTION AND MAYER VERY LARGE HAIL IS POSSIBLE WITH THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THE STORM...PUT YOUR CAR IN A GARAGE AND MOVE TO A SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER. INTENSE LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. MOVE INDOORS IF POSSIBLE. WHEN INDOORS...STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING TELEPHONES UNLESS IT IS AN EMERGENCY. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY ELECTRICAL APPLIANCES BEFORE THE THUNDERSTORM APPROACHES. REPORT SEVERE WEATHER TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE. LAT...LON 3457 11198 3463 11219 3437 11236 3427 11208
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Flagstaff, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 13, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 13 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Jul 13, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 13 minutes before
NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
230 PM MST SAT JUL 13 2002
.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES TO PERSIST AS HIGH
PRESSURE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD ON NORTHERN ARIZONA. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LAST INTO THE EVENING HOURS AGAIN
TONIGHT...MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM. AS MOISTURE
INCREASES ON SUNDAY...LOOK FOR A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE NEW WEEK BEGINS.
.DISCUSSION...IN THE SHORT TERM...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF YAVAPAI AND GILA COUNTIES UNTIL 900 PM
MST. OTHER COUNTIES IN THE CWFA ARE NOT INCLUDED IN THE WATCH.
IN THE NEAR TERM...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND SOUTHWEST. SMALL DISTURBANCES MAKING THEIR WAY
AROUND THE HIGH...PAIRED WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS...WILL GENERATE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES FOR THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY MONDAY AND TUESDAY AFTERNOONS. MOST FAVORED LOCATIONS WILL
BE ALONG THE NEW MEXICO BORDER AND SOUTHWEST OF THE MOGOLLON RIM.
IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD...BY WEDNESDAY...A LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA
WITH EXTENSIVE TROUGHING OFF THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO NUDGE HIGH
PRESSURE EASTWARD OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN. CONVECTION MAY SLOWLY
BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY AS THE LOW FEEDS IN
DEEP...DRY AIR FROM THE SOUTHWEST. HOWARD
.FGZ...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ZONES 08/18/37 UNTIL 900 PM MST.
.CODED TEMPERATURES/POPS FOR SELECTED CITIES IN NORTHERN ARIZONA
CITY TEMPERATURES LO/HI PROBABILITY OF PRECIP
TON SUN MON TUE TON SUN MON TUE
FLAGSTAFF 054/084 055/083 054/082 020 040 030 040 030 040
WINSLOW 067/094 068/093 065/092 020 030 020 040 020 040
PRESCOTT 066/091 066/089 065/088 030 050 030 040 030 040
PAGE 078/100 075/096 073/095 000 020 020 030 020 030
WINDOW ROCK 054/086 054/082 053/081 020 040 050 050 030 050
CANYON DE CHELLY 060/092 060/088 059/087 020 030 040 040 020 040
COTTONWOOD 074/102 074/100 073/099 020 040 020 030 020 030
GRAND CANYON 052/087 051/085 051/084 020 030 020 030 020 030
GREER 050/080 051/079 050/078 030 060 060 070 050 070
HEBER 055/089 056/088 055/087 030 060 050 060 040 060
JACOB LAKE 054/082 055/081 054/080 020 030 020 030 020 030
NAVAJO N.M. 058/086 058/082 057/081 020 030 040 040 020 040
PAYSON 067/096 067/094 066/093 030 020 030 040 030 040
SEDONA 072/100 072/098 071/097 020 040 020 030 020 030
SELIGMAN 059/094 059/092 058/091 020 040 020 030 020 030
SHOW LOW 062/090 063/089 062/088 020 040 040 040 030 040
ST. JOHNS 062/088 063/087 060/086 030 040 030 050 030 050
WUPATKI N.M. 070/096 071/095 068/094 020 030 020 050 020 050The office that day
Everything else NWS Flagstaff, AZ issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 13, 3:10 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 20 min |
| Jul 13, 3:11 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 19 min |
| Jul 13, 3:32 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 28 min |
| Jul 13, 3:40 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 35 min |
| Jul 13, 4:15 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 30 min |
| Jul 13, 4:44 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 21 min |
| Jul 13, 4:51 PM MST | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | FGZ | Yavapai | 24 min |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arizona, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.