Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Grand Forks, ND

June 22, 2002Nelson County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jun 22, 2002, 7:29 AM CDT for Nelson County, North Dakota. It was in force for 31 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Jun 22, 2002, 7:29 AM CDT (12:29 UTC)
Expired: Jun 22, 2002, 8:00 AM CDT
In force: 31 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Nelson County, ND

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Jun 22, 7:35 AM CDT	Hail 1.5	Michigan City, ND	Hail punched 12 holes in a fiberglass porch roof.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Bismarck Municip, ND (KBIS), launched 12:00Z, 0.5 hours before the alert went out and 242 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1721 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -377 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1049 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 37 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 273 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 275 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 221229
SVRFAR
NDC063-221300-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
729 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN NELSON COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 800 AM CDT.

* AT 721 AM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER MICHIGAN...OR ABOUT 36 MILES EAST OF
  DEVILS LAKE...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  PETERSBURG AT 730 AM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4806 9827 4792 9807 4805 9793 4818 9801


BERG

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jun 22, 1:45 AM CDT, 5 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jun 22, 1:45 AM CDT, 5 hours 44 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
145 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2002

...MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE CONTINUES TO FOCUS ON IMPENDING
CONVECTIVE AND HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND RESULTANT HEADLINES...

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL OVERVIEW...
06Z MSAS ANALYSIS DEPICTED BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST
MONTANA TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DRAPED
OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. LATEST IR SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR
MOSAIC INDICATED CONVECTIVE COMPLEX DEVELOPING OVER EASTERN MONTANA
OCCURRING IN THE VICINITY OF STRONG MOISTURE FLUX CONVERGENCE AND
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW INFLUX. KMVX VAD WIND PROFILE INDICATED 30
KTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WITH GOOD VEERING OF WINDS IN THE LOWER
GATES.

.FORECAST DETAILS...
MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE PERIODIC PIECES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
I.E. RIDGE RIDERS EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF PARENT WESTERN MEAN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS VICINITY DURING THE
NEXT 48 TO 60 HOURS. IN LAYMENS TERMS EXPECT PERIODIC CONVECTIVE
(MCVS) ESPECIALLY NOCTURNAL IN NATURE TO WORK EAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO SUNDAY. FEATURES WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE VERY HEAVY RAINS AS MOISTURE LADEN ACTIVE 850MB LOW LEVEL
JET INFLUX FLOWS PERPENDICULAR TO AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT
BOUNDARY. BASED ON ABOVE WILL CONTINUE FLOOD WATCH FOR ENTIRE CWA.
IN ADDITION GOOD THERMO AND UPPER LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT SUGGESTS
SOME STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO BE SEVERE WITH BEST CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED TORNADOS IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SEE
SWODY1 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

.FGF...FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE FA THROUGH SUNDAY.

BERG

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jun 22, 5:36 AM CDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052>054-221400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
536 AM CDT SAT JUN 22 2002

...SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS EASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AND NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SYNOPSIS...A LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER SOUTH DAKOTA WITH A WARM
EXTENDING EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL MINNESOTA WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY
TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PUSH NORTHWARD OVER
THE FRONT SETTING THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

AREA OF CONCERN...ALL OF EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...NORTHWESTERN AND
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

TIME...6 AM THROUGH 3 PM AND THEN AGAIN DURING THE LATE EVENING INTO
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

TYPE OF HAZARD...LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ISOLATED
TORNADOES POSSIBLE NEAR THE WARM FRONT IN SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
AND WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

BRAMER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jun 22, 5:23 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey	52 min
Jun 22, 6:12 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Benson, Ramsey, Towner	48 min
Jun 22, 6:43 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Nelson, Walsh	47 min
Jun 22, 7:16 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Benson, Cavalier, Ramsey, Towner	8 hr
Jun 22, 7:20 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Benson, Cavalier, Ramsey, Towner	8 hr
Jun 22, 7:24 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Pembina, Walsh	51 min
Jun 22, 7:46 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Pembina, Walsh	8 hr
Jun 22, 8:14 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Nelson	6 hr
Jun 22, 8:29 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Walsh	46 min
Jun 22, 9:11 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Walsh	49 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.