Severe Thunderstorm Warning 319, NWS Grand Forks, ND

Issued

Aug 31, 2002, 8:32 PM CDT (01:32 UTC)

Expired

Aug 31, 2002, 9:15 PM CDT

In force

43 min

Issued by

NWS Grand Forks, ND

Area

Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Cavalier County, ND

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 142 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

393 
WUUS53 KFGF 010132
SVRFAR
NDC019-010215-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
831 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  EASTERN CAVALIER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 915 PM CDT.

* AT 828 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF OSNABROCK...OR ABOUT 12
  MILES SOUTHEAST OF LANGDON...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE NORTHEAST AT 55
  MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  MILTON AT 835 PM AND
  OLGA AT 840 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA AND NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA. A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH ALSO REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT SUNDAY
MORNING FOR NORTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4869 9833 4853 9820 4859 9796 4891 9796


04

NNNN

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 31, 1:57 PM CDT, 6 hours 35 minutes earlier.

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
157 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2002

...FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY...

.CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...
BEST SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND PRESSURE FALLS OCCURRING ACROSS
SOUTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA. AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...DEWPOINTS ARE HIGHER
THAN MODEL GUIDANCE WITH MANY AREAS NEAR 70 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM...
EXPECT THE FORECAST AREA(FA) TO BECOME VERY ACTIVE THIS EVENING AS
SURFACE FRONT ARRIVES ALONG WITH POTENT SHORT WAVE. AVN/ETA IN GOOD
AGREEMENT BRINGING PRECIPITABLE WATERS OF NEARLY 2 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF CWA. 850MB 40 KT LLJ AND WARM AIR ADVECTION POINT TO THE
BEST ORGANIZED STORM POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FA WITH LEAST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE DEVILS LAKE REGION. WITH NUMEROUS
REGIONS RECEIVING HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...WILL
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT FOR ENTIRE FA AND HIGHLIGHT THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF.

.MID TERM...
MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BE QUIET BEFORE THE NEXT FRONT AND WAVE COMES
DOWN SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT IT WILL HAVE A MUCH DRIER ENVIRONMENT TO WORK WITH.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY BRINGING A LULL
IN THE ACTIVITY.

.EXTENDED...
NEW MRF/AVN LINING UP WITH OTHER EXTENDED RUNS IN MAINTAINING
TROUGHING OVER WEST COAST VS MORE PROGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF PREVIOUS
DAY. AS A RESULT REGION GOES BACK INTO SW FLOW ALOFT OVER SECOND
HALF OF WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. SFC LOW REORGANIZES OVER
WESTERN HIGH PLAINS WITH PIECES OF ENERGY BEING EJECTED FROM PARENT
LOW OVER PACIFIC NW. FAVORED CHANCES FOR PCPN LOOK TO BE THURSDAY
THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS FEATURES SHIFT EAST. BASED ON POSITION OF
850MB THERMAL RIDGE AND THICKNESS TEMPS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE
SEASONAL AVERAGES UNTIL FROPA FRIDAY NIGHT.

THANKS FOR COORDINATION...MSP...DLH...ABR...BIS

.FGF...FLASH FLOOD WATCH ENTIRE CWA TONIGHT

DONAVON/VOELKER

In the hours before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
343 PM CDT SAT AUG 31 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0745 AM    8 N BEMIDJI               MN   .75 INCH HAIL
08/31/02   BELTRAMI

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2002Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.