Severe Thunderstorm Warning 295, NWS Grand Forks, ND

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUDS COVER MAINLY OVER N PARTS OF AREA...WITH SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER ELSEWHERE. KMVX HAS CONVECTION IN FAR E COUNTIES. CURRENT MSAS
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW CENTERED MOBRIDGE AND ABR...WITH INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING THROUGH AREA ALONG A JMS-GFK-HCO LINE. WHEN COMPARING
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...AVN CLOSEST.
SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROF MOVE BARELY E OVERNIGHT (TO ALONG A
FAR-BDE LINE BY 12Z THU)...KEEPING THETA-E RIDGE...GOOD
INSTABILITY...MID LEVEL LIFT...SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...OVER
MUCH OF AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES...WITH WEAK FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA...HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
CAPES STILL 2000-3000 OVER AREA AND NO CAP...ALREADY HAVE HAD SEVERE
HAIL...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR E COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF AREA EXCEPT DVL PORTION AND
EXTREME NE ND AND NW MN THROUGH TONIGHT. THANKS TO BIS (FGF BACKING
UP)...MSP AND DLH FOR COORD.

SFC LOW WASHES OUT OVER AREA ON THU...AS 700MB AND 500MB TROFS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH.  WITH PLENTY OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND INVERTED TROF STILL IN AREA...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. TROFS AND SHORTWAVE LIFT
THROUGH E PART OF AREA ON THU NIGHT...SO KEPT CHC OF STORMS. BY 12Z
FRI...NEXT SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND AND SD...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO DVL ON FRI AND THE REST OF AREA BY FRI NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH AREA...KEEPING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION THROUGH SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT.

EXTENDED...MAJORITY OF EXTENDED MODELS (CANADIAN/ECMWF/AVN) TRENDING
TOWARDS LESS AMPLIFICATION/MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY TIMING IS MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
WITH PCPN CHANCES. LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY BEFORE SW FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN AGAIN WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN MID WEEK.
COOLEST DAY LOOKS TO BE EARLY (SUN) WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY NEAR OR BLO SEASONAL VALUES UNTIL RECOVERY MIDWEEK.

.FGF...FLOOD WATCH ALL OF FA EXCEPT DVL REGION AND EXTREME NE ND AND
NW MN.

NG/VOELKER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
212 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0200 PM    1 NW BAD MEDICINE LAKE    MN   .88 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   BECKER                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0200 PM    1 S LONG LOST LAKE        MN   .88 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   CLEARWATER                     REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
436 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0433 PM    WAHPETON                  ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   RICHLAND                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER.

DPORTER