Alert archive / North Dakota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 302, NWS Grand Forks, ND

August 28, 2002Cass County, North Dakota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Aug 28, 2002, 6:44 PM CDT for Cass County, North Dakota. It was in force for 61 min. 2 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Aug 28, 2002, 6:44 PM CDT (23:44 UTC)
Expired: Aug 28, 2002, 7:45 PM CDT
In force: 61 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Cass County, ND

The radar

The Fargo/Grand Forks radar (KMVX), 49 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Aug 28, 7:05 PM CDT	Hail 1	Ayr, ND
Aug 28, 7:15 PM CDT	Hail 1	Ayr, ND

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Aug 28, 5:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	4 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Aberdeen, SD (KABR), launched 12:00Z, 11.7 hours before the alert went out and 256 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1363 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -76 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 969 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 18 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 99 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

975 
WUUS53 KFGF 282344
SVRFAR
NDC017-290030-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
643 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT.

* AT 639 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER AYR...OR ABOUT 27 MILES EAST OF VALLEY
  CITY...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...

  ERIE AT 645 PM...
  ARTHUR AT 700 PM...
  HUNTER AT 705 PM AND
  ARGUSVILLE AT 725 PM.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1000 PM WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR NORTHWESTERN MINNESOTA AND SOUTHEAST NORTH DAKOTA.

LAT...LON 4713 9760 4696 9752 4699 9689 4722 9710




NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Aug 28, 3:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 44 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Aug 28, 3:00 PM CDT, 3 hours 44 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
300 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS PRECIPITATION. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CLOUDS COVER MAINLY OVER N PARTS OF AREA...WITH SCATTERED CLOUD
COVER ELSEWHERE. KMVX HAS CONVECTION IN FAR E COUNTIES. CURRENT MSAS
SURFACE ANALYSIS HAS LOW CENTERED MOBRIDGE AND ABR...WITH INVERTED
TROF EXTENDING THROUGH AREA ALONG A JMS-GFK-HCO LINE. WHEN COMPARING
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS TO MODEL INITIALIZATIONS...AVN CLOSEST.
SURFACE LOW AND INVERTED TROF MOVE BARELY E OVERNIGHT (TO ALONG A
FAR-BDE LINE BY 12Z THU)...KEEPING THETA-E RIDGE...GOOD
INSTABILITY...MID LEVEL LIFT...SURFACE MOISTURE CONVERGENCE...OVER
MUCH OF AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PRECIPITABLE WATERS FROM 1.25 TO 1.75 INCHES...WITH WEAK FLOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AND THICKNESS DIFFLUENCE OVER THE
AREA...HEAVY RAIN WITH TRAINING STORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. WITH
CAPES STILL 2000-3000 OVER AREA AND NO CAP...ALREADY HAVE HAD SEVERE
HAIL...SO WILL KEEP MENTION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR E COUNTIES. AS A
RESULT...ISSUED FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF AREA EXCEPT DVL PORTION AND
EXTREME NE ND AND NW MN THROUGH TONIGHT. THANKS TO BIS (FGF BACKING
UP)...MSP AND DLH FOR COORD.

SFC LOW WASHES OUT OVER AREA ON THU...AS 700MB AND 500MB TROFS ALONG
WITH UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVE THROUGH.  WITH PLENTY OF LOW TO MID
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING AND INVERTED TROF STILL IN AREA...
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. TROFS AND SHORTWAVE LIFT
THROUGH E PART OF AREA ON THU NIGHT...SO KEPT CHC OF STORMS. BY 12Z
FRI...NEXT SURFACE FRONT MOVES INTO CENTRAL ND AND SD...BRINGING A
CHANCE OF STORMS TO DVL ON FRI AND THE REST OF AREA BY FRI NIGHT.
THIS FRONT MOVES SLOWLY THROUGH AREA...KEEPING CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE REGION THROUGH SAT AND INTO SAT NIGHT.

EXTENDED...MAJORITY OF EXTENDED MODELS (CANADIAN/ECMWF/AVN) TRENDING
TOWARDS LESS AMPLIFICATION/MORE ZONAL FLOW INTO FIRST HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. INITIALLY TIMING IS MAIN CONCERN HOWEVER WILL NEED TO CONTINUE
WITH PCPN CHANCES. LOOKS TO BE A BRIEF BREAK TUESDAY BEFORE SW FLOW
ALOFT KICKS IN AGAIN WITH SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVING IN MID WEEK.
COOLEST DAY LOOKS TO BE EARLY (SUN) WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT
FOLLOWED BY NEAR OR BLO SEASONAL VALUES UNTIL RECOVERY MIDWEEK.

.FGF...FLOOD WATCH ALL OF FA EXCEPT DVL REGION AND EXTREME NE ND AND
NW MN.

NG/VOELKER

In the hours before

Local storm report, Aug 28, 5:35 PM CDT, 1 hour 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
535 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0520 PM    4 E BARNESVILLE           MN   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   CLAY

0520 PM    5 NE LAWNDALE             MN   1.75 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   WILKIN

DPORTER

Local storm report, Aug 28, 6:01 PM CDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
601 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0527 PM    10 NE HANKINSON           ND   FUNNEL CLOUD
08/28/02   RICHLAND

0540 PM    DWIGHT                    ND   .75 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   RICHLAND

0545 PM    4 E HANKINSON             ND   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   RICHLAND                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0600 PM    4 E HANKINSON             ND   .75 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   RICHLAND                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Aug 28, 6:09 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
609 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0600 PM    2 E KINDRED               ND   .75 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   CASS                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Aug 28, 6:16 PM CDT, 28 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
616 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0545 PM    4 SE HITTERDAL            MN   .75 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   CLAY                           REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Aug 28, 6:33 PM CDT, 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
633 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0530 PM    9 NW PELICAN RAPIDS       MN   1.00 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   OTTER TAIL                     REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0600 PM    3 E WAUBUN                MN   .88 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   MAHNOMEN                       REPORTED BY CO-OP OBSERVER.

DPORTER

Local storm report, Aug 28, 6:42 PM CDT, 2 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS, ND
642 PM CDT WED AUG 28 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0635 PM    SABIN                     MN   .75 INCH HAIL
08/28/02   CLAY                           REPORTED BY CO-OP
                                          OBSERVER.

DPORTER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Aug 27, 7:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Grand Forks, Pembina, Walsh	58 min
Aug 27, 8:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Pembina, Walsh	47 min
Aug 27, 8:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Towner	47 min
Aug 27, 9:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cavalier	46 min
Aug 27, 9:35 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Walsh	40 min
Aug 27, 10:13 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Walsh	47 min
Aug 27, 10:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Walsh	4 hr
Aug 27, 10:43 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Towner	47 min
Aug 27, 10:57 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Walsh	48 min
Aug 28, 4:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Richland	45 min
Aug 28, 5:01 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Richland	44 min
Aug 28, 5:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Steele, Traill	40 min
Aug 28, 5:47 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Richland	43 min
Aug 28, 5:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Cass	35 min
Aug 28, 6:14 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Richland	6 hr
Aug 28, 6:16 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Richland	6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in North Dakota, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.