Alert archive / Minnesota / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2002

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 114, NWS Grand Forks, ND

July 7, 2002Otter Tail County, Minnesota

NWS Grand Forks, ND issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Jul 7, 2002, 5:42 PM CDT for Otter Tail County, Minnesota. It was in force for 48 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 7, 2002, 5:42 PM CDT (22:42 UTC)
Expired: Jul 7, 2002, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 48 min
Issued by: NWS Grand Forks, ND
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Otter Tail County, MN

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Minneapolis, MN (KMPX), launched 12:00Z, 10.7 hours before the alert went out and 249 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 579 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -140 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1033 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 8 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -2 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 18 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WUUS53 KFGF 072242
SVRFAR
MNC111-072330-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
542 PM CDT SUN JUL 7 2002

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAND FORKS HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...

  NORTHERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT.

* AT 539 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OVER PERHAM...OR ABOUT 19 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
  DETROIT LAKES...MOVEMENT WAS TO THE EAST AT 25 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL REMAIN IN RURAL AREAS OF

  NORTHERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY AND
  NORTHEASTERN OTTER TAIL COUNTY.

REMEMBER SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING.

LAT...LON 4667 9570 4654 9565 4655 9529 4671 9543
BRIDENSTINE

NNNN

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Grand Forks, ND wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Jul 7, 3:10 AM CDT, 14 hours 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 7, 3:10 AM CDT, 14 hours 32 minutes before

FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND NORTHWEST MINNESOTA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
310 AM CDT SUN JUL 7 2002

FORECAST CHALLENGE CONCERNS EARLY HEAVY RAIN THREAT AND
TEMPERATURES.

MODELS IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT BOUNDARY LOCATION
AND TIMING DIFFERENCES. OVERALL MODELS IN AGREEMENT FOR POTENTIAL
HEAVY RAIN EVENT ACROSS SOUTH HALF OF FA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

FAIRLY COMPLEX SFC PATTERN EARLY THIS AM WITH E-W ORIENTED
BOUNDARIES THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO NW MN AND FROM SW SD
INTO CENTRAL MN. UPPER LOW OVER NE PANHANDLE DIPICTED BY 00Z UA
ANALYSIS HOWEVER TOUGH TO PICK OUT FROM WATER VAPOR. THIS FEATURE TO
LIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST AND AS IT DOES ASSOCIATED SFC LOW BECOMES
BETTER DEFINED AND MAIN LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY BECOMES ORIENTED ALONG
ND/SD BORDER. REGIONAL RADARS INDICATING UPSTREAM PRECIPITAITON
ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LOW LIFTING SLOWLY NORTH THROUGH CENTRAL
DAKOTAS. PWATS INCREASE TO AROUND 2 INCHES AND 850MB DEWPOINTS TO
14C. AS UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTHEAST ASSOCIATED SFC LOW TO RIDE ALONG
BOUNDARY PROVIDING ADDITIONAL LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE. 850MB
CONVERGENCES ALSO INCREASES ACROSS SOUTHERN THIRD OF ND. ALL THIS
LEADS TO GOOD POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN EVENT WITH SLOW MOVEMENT OF
MID LEVEL LOW AND LOOSE THICKNESS GRADIENT. ORIENTATION OF BOUNDARY AND
INITIATION OF DEEP CONVECTION WILL BE KEY HOWEVER AT THIS TIME IT
LOOKS LIKE SOUTHERN THIRD OF FA UNDER THE GUN AND WILL HIGHLIGHT ON
WATCH. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AS SFC LOW TRACKS
ALONG BORDER AND 850MB WARM ADVECTION INCREASE AHEAD OF WAVE
...HOWEVER THIS WILL HINGE ON DEGREE OF SOLAR. CLOUDS TO GRADUALLY
THICKEN HOWEVER WITH MILD START WILL NOT TAKE MUCH SOLAR TO REALIZE
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE VALUES WHICH ARE AGAIN IN CLOSE AGREEMENT. WILL
HOWEVER STAY ON LOW END.

MID LEVEL FEATURE MOVES ONLY SLOWLY EAST OVERNIGHT AND EXPECT HEAVY
RAIN THREAT TO CONTINUE WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST
OVERNIGHT. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HOLD TEMPS UP.

CLOUDS TO LINGER MONDAY AS SYSTEM EXITS REGION. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE CONFINED TO SE FORECAST AREA.
OTHERWISE EXPECT GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST TO EAST.

BREAK WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS CURRENT PAC NW UPPER LOW TRACKS ACROSS
SOUTH CANADIAN PROVINCES. ASSOCIATED SFC FEATURE WILL BRING CHANCE
OF PCPN BACK INTO FORECAST FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

.FGF...FLOOD WATCH FULL CWFA SUN AND MON.
VOELKER

The office that day

Everything else NWS Grand Forks, ND issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 7, 10:35 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	FGF	Marshall	6 hr
Jul 7, 1:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Otter Tail	46 min
Jul 7, 1:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Beltrami, Lake of the Woods	43 min
Jul 7, 2:20 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Otter Tail	25 min
Jul 7, 2:49 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	FGF	Otter Tail	41 min
Jul 7, 6:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	FGF	Wadena	47 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Minnesota, 2002 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2002

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.