Flash Flood Warning 226, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
942 PM CDT MON OCT 7 2002

AFTER A COUPLE HOURS OF INDECISION, HAVE FINALLY DECIDED TO HOIST A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE I-35 CORRIDOR AND ALL POINTS WEST. WAS
MONITORING THE SOUTHWARD EXTENT OF THE SHORTWAVE AND COMPARING THIS
FEATURE TO THE 18Z MODEL FORECASTS TO SEE HOW WELL THE LARGE COMPLEX
OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVING THROUGH VAL VERDE COUNTY WOULD HOLD UP. IT
APPEARS THE 18Z MESO-ETA AND AVN WERE SLIGHTLY TOO CONSERVATIVE AND
THE EARLY SIGNS FROM THE 00Z MESO-ETA INDICATE A DEEPER SHORTWAVE
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED. CONVECTION IS QUITE HEALTHY 100
MILES SOUTHWEST OF EAGLE PASS THUS EXPECT THIS RAIN AREA TO SPREAD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. RAINS OVER
THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY ARE IN A SLOW DECLINE, BUT WILL RESULT IN
RAPID RUNOFF PROBLEMS AS THIS SHORTWAVE BEGINS TO AFFECT THIS AREA
TOWARD DAYBREAK. LOW LEVEL JET WILL PROBABLY TRIGGER ADDITIONAL
STORMS AHEAD OF THE WESTERN COMPLEX TO COMPLICATE MATTERS.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS CORRESPOND TO DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATES TO SUGGEST
SLIGHT UNDERESTIMATION PROBABLY ON THE ORDER OF 20 PERCENT. THE
HIGHEST REPORT SO FAR WAS 3.03 NEAR HUNT IN KERR COUNTY WITH SEVERAL
REPORTS OVER 2 INCHES IN KERR, GILLESPIE, LEE, BASTROP, AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES.

-UPDATE-
JUST GOT A REPORT OF 7 INCHES IN THE TOWN OF COMFORT AS A TINY
SLIVER OF HEAVY RAIN TRACKED ALONG THE KERR AND KENDALL COUNTY. THIS
POINTS CLOSER TO AN UNDERESTIMATION OF ABOUT 30-40 PERCENT. THE CELL
HERE WAS A UNIQUELY STATIONARY STORM, SO THE MORE ORGANIZED ACTIVITY
TO THE WEST WILL PROBABLY NOT STUMP THE ESTIMATES QUITE AS MUCH.

WILL ADJUST FORECAST ZONE AREAS SLIGTHLY WHICH WILL RESULT IN A FEW
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR LATER PERIODS. FORECAST PARAMETERS FROM
THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE DID NOT VARY MUCH, SO THE DIFFERENCES SHOULD
BE SLIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WILL MAINLY
REFLECT AN INCREASE IN POPS OVER THE HILL COUNTRY IN THE FIRST
COUPLE PERIODS.

.EWX...FFA THRU TUES AFTN ALONG AND WEST OF I-35.

18/3/KW

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-081200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
600 AM CDT MON OCT 7 2002

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. NO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER...SPOTTY
HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

FROM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE OF RAIN...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED COLD FRONT
OVER THE REGION. NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
HOWEVER...SPOTTY HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THUNDERSTORMS.