Severe Thunderstorm Warning 215, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
255 AM CDT THU JUN 20 2002

DAYS 1-2...
MAIN SFC BOUNDARY THIS MORNING EXTENDED FROM E CNTL CO INTO NW KS.
CONVECTION HERE HAS BE VERY PERSISTENT AS ONE S/W TROF CROSSES ERN
CO/NW KS. MODELS MOVE THIS WAVE INTO SCNTL NE LATER THIS MORNING SO
AM EXPECTING THIS PCPN TO CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE NORTH. WILL THEREFORE GO WITH SMALL POPS ACROSS THE
NW/NRN CWA FOR EARLY TODAY. W/V LOOP AND 00Z U/A ANALYSIS SHOWING
SEVERAL MORE S/W TROFS PRESENT UPSTREAM, ONE OF WHICH PROGGED TO
CROSS INTO THE CNTL PLAINS LATER TODAY. ALL MODELS HOLD OUR SFC
BOUNDARY NEARLY STATIONARY TODAY AS THIS NEXT WAVE APPROACHES THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL RESULT A CONTINUED S/SE FLOW OVER WRN
KS WITH GOOD WAA AND MCON DEVELOPING BY LATE DAY ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY. SAME VEERING FLOW PRESENT IN THE LOWER LEVELS BY LATE DAY
AND PER SWODY1 PROGGED SBCAPES WILL RANGE FROM 2000-3000 J/KG.
THEREFORE ONCE AGAIN WOULD EXPECT TO SEE CONVECTION DEVELOP ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY LATE THIS AFTERNOON THEN EXPECT CONVECTION TO BECOME
WIDESPREAD BY EVENING ACROSS THE NW 1/2 OF THE CWA. CURRENT
FORECAST HAS A GOOD HANDLE WITH THIS BUT WILL BUMP POPS UP SOME FOR
TONIGHT IN OUR NW.

FOR FRIDAY 5H HTS BEGIN TO RISE OVER THE WESTERN PLAINS AS A MORE
SIG UPPER TROF MOVES ONTO THE SW CONUS. ALONG WITH HT RISES, GOOD
WAA DEVELOPS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AS OUR SFC BOUNDARY MOVES BACK
NORTHWARD AS A WARM FRONT. WILL LEAVE FORECAST DRY BRING TEMPS BACK
INTO MID 90S TO MOST LOCATIONS.

DAYS 3-7...
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK SO NO CHANGES
PLANNED TO THE LATER PERIODS

THANKS FOR THE CORD ICT.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   90  66  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
GCK   89  63  95  66 /  20  30   0   0
EHA   91  64  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
LBL   91  66  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
HYS   87  65  95  67 /  30  30   0   0
P28   92  70  93  70 /   0   0   0   0

.DDC...NONE.

FCSTID = 18/15

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1153 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0816 PM    2N GARDEN CITY            KS   59 MPH TSTM GUST
06/19/02   FINNEY                         REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC

0920 PM    20S COOLIDGE              KS   1.75 IN HAIL
06/19/02   HAMILTON                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

1026 PM    8N JOHNSON CITY           KS   1.75 IN HAIL
06/19/02   STANTON                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT

1046 PM    9S KENDALL                KS   1.75 IN HAIL
06/19/02   HAMILTON                       REPORTED BY TRAINED
                                          SPOTTER

RB