Severe Thunderstorm Warning 212, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
340 PM CDT WED JUN 19 2002

DAYS 1-2...

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE THE WIND ADVISORY EARLY TONIGHT, CHANCES
FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST AND NORTH TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT,
AND TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE NEXT FEW PERIODS.

FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS SHIFTED SOUTH TO A LOCATION FROM NEAR KGLD TO
KLAA THIS AFTERNOON.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND PROFILERS WERE
INDICATING A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH LOCATED OVER EASTERN COLORADO AND
THIS ALONG WITH SURFACE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE
TROUGH TO THE SOUTH WAS HELPING TO FIRE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG THE
FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MESOETA 700 MB TEMP FORECAST
INDICATING THAT THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL GET SHUNTED OFF TO THE
EAST THIS EVENING.  AS THE COLO VORT MAX MOVES TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST, EXPECT TO SEE THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZE INTO A POSSIBLE MCS
THAT SHOULD TRACK OUT TO THE EAST INTO AN AREA OF BETTER LOW LEVEL
MOIST INFLOW OVER CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT.  HOW FAR SOUTH THIS MCS
WOULD GO IS THE QUESTION.  FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR STORMS GENERALLY ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 96.
DEPENDING ON HOW ORGANIZED THE STORMS GET, AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL
LIKELY GET PUSHED SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA LATER
TONIGHT.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL LIKELY STILL BE AROUND SOMEWHERE OVER
THE NORTHERN OR CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA ON THURSDAY AND COULD BE THE
FOCUS FOR MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY
EVENING.

WINDS ARE STILL AOA ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
CONTINUE THE ADVISORY UNTIL 02Z OR NEAR SUNSET.

SHOULD SEE AN 8 TO 10 DEGREE TEMPERATURE RANGE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH
ACROSS THE CWA ON THURSDAY.  THIS LOOKS GOOD BUT MARGIN FOR ERROR IS
GREATER IN AREAS WHERE THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WILL BE NEAR.  WILL
CONTINUE WITH CURRENT FORECAST OF MID 80S IN THE NORTH AND LOW 90S
IN THE SOUTH.

DAYS 3-7...

FORECAST DIFFICULTIES REMAIN SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY. MODELS CONTINUE
TO STRUGGLE WITH DETAILS OF THE STRENGTHENING PACIFIC WESTERLIES, AS
EARLY AS FRIDAY NIGHT. WESTERN CONUS TROF MOVES NORTHEAST OVER TOP
OF UPPER RIDGE WITH STRONGER ENERGY MAKING ITS WAY OUT OF THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CONUS. IF THE AVN/GFS IS
CORRECT, A WEAK BOUNDARY MAY SINK SOUTH INTO THE CWA LATE SUNDAY AND
PROVIDE ENOUGH FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORMS. OTHER MODELS MINOR THE WAVE
AS THE WESTERN ENERGY MOVES ASHORE AND THREATEN TO BRING A BOUNDARY
SOUTH OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS THE RIDGE BUILDS WEST TOWARD
MIDWEEK. CONFIDENCE IN ANY PARTICULAR SOLUTION IS LOW, AND AS
YESTERDAYS SHIFT NOTED, PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE IN
PLACE AND WITH WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH DISTURBANCES POSSIBLY CROSSING
OVERHEAD, IT WILL BE HARD TO RULE OUT THUNDERSTORMS ALMOST ANY
PERIOD. THUS FOR CONTINUITYS SAKE WILL LEAVE PRECIPITATION CHANCES
FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND KEEP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DRY.
TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE VERY WARM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD UNDER
THE UPPER RIDGE BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION A LITTLE COOLING FOR
SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC   67  92  66  93 /  10   0  20   0
GCK   65  88  63  91 /  20   0  20   0
EHA   66 191  65  94 /  10   0  10   0
LBL   68  92  67  93 /  10   0  10   0
HYS   63  86  65  90 /  40   0  30   0
P28   70  91  70  93 /   0   0   0   0

.DDC...NONE.

GERARD/POAGE