Special Marine Warning 18, NWS Buffalo, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
1042 AM EDT WED MAY 29 2002

CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY LOOKS TO BE IN FAIRLY GOOD SHAPE AT THIS
TIME. WNY IS NOW UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A TROPICAL AIRMASS (SFC
DEWS IN THE LOW 60S AND PWATS AROUND 1.2 INCHES). THE ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS PROGGED TO MOISTEN EVEN FURTHER AS THE DAY PROGRESSES
(PWATS RISE TO 1.5 BY LATE AFTERNOON PER BUFKIT SOUNDINGS AND MODEL
PROGS)...THIS FACTOR COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL PRODUCE A
VERY JUICY AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS BY EARLY AFTERNOON (CAPES 1500-1600
J/KG). WITH ALMOST NIL CIN...THE INSTABILITY ALONE SHOULD BE ENOUGH
TO AT LEAST FIRE SCATTERED CONVECTION...AND ANY WEAK TRIGGERS WILL
BE ENOUGH TO SET OFF MORE CONCENTRATED ACTIVITY. WE WILL HAVE TWO
SUCH FEATURES TO CONCERN OURSELVES WITH THIS AFTERNOON: (1) A VERY
SUBTLE 500 MB SHORTWAVE CROSSING THE AREA... AND (2) ANY LAKE
BREEZES THAT DEVELOP IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW. PER A
GLANCE AT OUR DUNKIRK CMAN SITE AND A PHONE CALL FROM WFO
CLE...WINDS HAVE ALREADY SWITCHED TO NORTHWEST/NORTH AT A FEW
LOCATIONS ALONG THE LAKE ERIE SHORELINE...AND I EXPECT A SIMILAR
SITUATION TO EVOLVE ALONG LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTERNOON. WITH SUCH
FEATURES PRESENT...I FEEL IT PRUDENT TO CONTINUE WITH LIKELY POPS
FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

GIVEN THE CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...PARTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND CURRENT FORECAST TEMPS ALSO LOOK ON TARGET...ABOUT THE
ONLY CHANGE I WILL MAKE IS TO INCLUDE A MENTION OF COOLER NEAR THE
LAKES DUE TO THE WEAK LAKE BREEZE CIRCULATIONS WE EXPECT THIS
AFTERNOON. WILL ALSO MENTION ONSHORE WINDS NEAR THE LAKES AS
WELL...KEEPING THE SOUTHERLY GRADIENT ELSEWHERE.

AS A FINAL NOTE...IVE MADE SOME CHANGES TO CLEAN UP THE WORDING OF
THE EXTENDED PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST...THOUGH FOR NOW IVE OPTED TO
LEAVE THE GENERAL TONE OF THE FORECAST THE SAME FROM PERIOD 2
ONWARD...EVEN THOUGH I HAVE CONSIDERABLE DOUBTS ABOUT THE CURRENT
FORECAST OF RAIN FOR FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE LATEST RUN OF THE AVN.
WILL INSTEAD LEAVE ANY CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED FOR THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE...AFTER I GET A LOOK AT THE NEXT SET OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

WRKZFP ALREADY GONE...ZONES TO HIT THE HIGHWAY BY 1045.

THANX FOR COORD CLE

.BUF...NONE.

JJR