Severe Thunderstorm Warning 98, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
300 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A SURFACE LOW IN EASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
WILL HELP TO CONTINUE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES THROUGH THIS EVENING. A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL
OF THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES UNTIL 8 PM. STORMS WERE FIRING
UP EAST OF THE DRYLINE. OTHER STORMS WERE CONTINUING ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY PUSHING SOUTH INTO
THE SOUTHCENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE AT THIS TIME. TORNADO THREAT APPEARS
GREATEST AS STORMS INTERACT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AND AS STORM BECOME
BETTER DEVELOPED LATER THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...THE SEVERE
THREAT SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING AND PUSH INTO THE EAST
LATE TONIGHT AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW SLOWLY PUSHES INTO OKLAHOMA.
ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS LOOKS PROBABLE WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT
CONSIDERING ABUNDANT MOISTURE SHOULD BE PRESENT TUESDAY ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. WILL GO WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF STORMS THERE.
HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BUILD IN AT THE SURFACE TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY
HELP TO PUSH THE BETTER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SOUTH OF THE PANHANDLES
WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...WITH SHORTWAVES STILL COMING AROUND THE
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE...A CHANCE OF STORMS WILL STILL BE NEEDED FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

FOR THE LATER PERIODS...EXTENDED RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO BUILD THE
RIDGE EAST OVER THE PANHANDLES WHICH IF THIS OCCURS MAY LIMIT
INSTABILITY FRIDAY. THE RIDGE ALOFT SHOULD ALSO INTENSIFY HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE REDUCING THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE
WEEKEND. OVERALL...WILL CONTINUE THE DRYING TREND THROUGH SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...NEW MEDIUM RANGE MODELS WEAKEN THE RIDGE BY SUNDAY WITH THE
LOW-LEVEL JET INTENSIFYING SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...WILL INTRODUCE A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AMA 58/83 57/85 58 943
DHT 55/82 55/85 57 933

.AMA...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

CB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1143 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1017 AM    1E BEAVER                 OK   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/27/02   BEAVER                         REPORTED BY BEAVER COUNTY
                                          EM.

1018 AM    1E BEAVER                 OK   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/27/02   BEAVER                         REPORTED BY BEAVER COUNTY
                                          EM.

1235 PM    1NE SPEARMAN              TX   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/27/02   HANSFORD                       PUBLIC REPORT THRU
                                          VERIFICATION

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-272300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EAST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF TEXLINE EXTENDING
SOUTH TO 30 MILES WEST OF HEREFORD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE-LINE AND ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR CLOVIS NEW MEXICO. AT
UPPER-LEVELS...A TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A
DISTURBANCE SET TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE AND INSTABILITY
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHCENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY...SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH SOME
STORMS HAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE.

THE WEST EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK...THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST FROM THE SOUTHCENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE EXTENDING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTCENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...TORNADOES ARE THE MOST POSSIBLE IN AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM CANYON TO AMARILLO TO PAMPA AND TO CANADIAN.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

BROYLES