Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
415 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STEADILY MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS FARTHER
UPSTREAM OFF NORTHERN BAJA COAST. MEANWHILE...VARIOUS LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES WERE SCATTERED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...MID LEVEL UPWARD FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AS WELL
AS ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARIES...ARE LIKELY THE CATALYST.

UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY WITH EVOLUTION OF WX...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF QPF AS WELL AS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
NEXT COLD FRONT. SINCE NO ONE MODEL APPEARS TO BE OUTPERFORMING ANY
OTHER...A BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE...WHICH FITS IN FAIRLY WELL WITH
PREVIOUSLY INHERITED FORECAST. ALTHOUGH A FEW TWEAKS IN THE POPS ARE
IN ORDER...DECIDED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS ALL
ZONES FOR THE FIRST THREE PERIODS. BELIEVE THAT ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY UNDERWAY...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND...ALONG
DRYLINE AND LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SECOND ROUND WILL HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AS INSTABILITY
AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONGER. SURPRISINGLY...AVN AND NGM HAVE
NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY
TUESDAY. THE ETA REALLY DOESN/T SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A FRONT...MORE
A BACKING OF THE WINDS AS SURFACE LOW SINKS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. NGM/AVN ARE MORE CHAOTIC WITH MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW. THIS
MAY BE A RESULT OF THE MODELS DIFFICULTY WITH EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL WX PATTERN. INSTABILITY...BOUNDARIES...AND MID LEVEL LIFT
DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE...THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON TO
CHANGE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY ON...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TURNS SOUTH. AS
Y/DAY/S FORECASTER NOTED IN BRIEFING...PANHANDLES SHOULD BE UNDER A
RIDGE RIGHT NOW. SO...NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AMA TE 082/058 083/057 085 64333
DHT TE 081/055 082/055 085 64333

.AMA...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

JH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
1143 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION..... STATE  ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1017 AM    1E BEAVER                 OK   0.75 INCH HAIL
05/27/02   BEAVER                         REPORTED BY BEAVER COUNTY
                                          EM.

1018 AM    1E BEAVER                 OK   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/27/02   BEAVER                         REPORTED BY BEAVER COUNTY
                                          EM.

1235 PM    1NE SPEARMAN              TX   0.88 INCH HAIL
05/27/02   HANSFORD                       PUBLIC REPORT THRU
                                          VERIFICATION

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-272300-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
115 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE EAST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHEAST OF TEXLINE EXTENDING
SOUTH TO 30 MILES WEST OF HEREFORD FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FAR WESTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE NEAR THE NEW MEXICO STATE-LINE AND ACROSS THE
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

PLENTIFUL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WAS IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES. A SURFACE LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR CLOVIS NEW MEXICO. AT
UPPER-LEVELS...A TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH A
DISTURBANCE SET TO TRACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS
AFTERNOON. ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE DISTURBANCE AND INSTABILITY
NEAR THE SURFACE WILL CAUSE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTHCENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BY MID AFTERNOON...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE.
DUE TO INSTABILITY AND UPPER-LEVEL ENERGY...SOME OF THESE
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES WITH SOME
STORMS HAVING THE POSSIBILITY OF BECOMING SEVERE.

THE WEST EDGE OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN TEXAS
PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH WEAK...THE MID-LEVEL JET WILL
BEGIN TO AFFECT AREAS IN THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE AS WELL. AS A
RESULT...WIND SHEAR WILL BE GREATEST FROM THE SOUTHCENTRAL TEXAS
PANHANDLE EXTENDING TO THE EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
EASTCENTRAL TEXAS PANHANDLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. AS A
RESULT...TORNADOES ARE THE MOST POSSIBLE IN AREAS TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
A LINE FROM CANYON TO AMARILLO TO PAMPA AND TO CANADIAN.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING.

BROYLES