Severe Thunderstorm Warning 87, NWS Amarillo, TX

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
415 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

LEE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO
CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW STEADILY MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER EASTERN AZ AND WESTERN NM. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WAS FARTHER
UPSTREAM OFF NORTHERN BAJA COAST. MEANWHILE...VARIOUS LOW LEVEL
BOUNDARIES WERE SCATTERED THROUGH THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.
CONVECTION HAS BEEN ON THE INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN AND
SOUTHWESTERN ZONES DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS. STRONG LOW LEVEL
JET...MID LEVEL UPWARD FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE...AS WELL
AS ABOVE MENTIONED BOUNDARIES...ARE LIKELY THE CATALYST.

UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE
DIFFICULTY WITH EVOLUTION OF WX...PARTICULARLY WITH RESPECT TO
COVERAGE AND AMOUNTS OF QPF AS WELL AS THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
NEXT COLD FRONT. SINCE NO ONE MODEL APPEARS TO BE OUTPERFORMING ANY
OTHER...A BLEND SEEMS REASONABLE...WHICH FITS IN FAIRLY WELL WITH
PREVIOUSLY INHERITED FORECAST. ALTHOUGH A FEW TWEAKS IN THE POPS ARE
IN ORDER...DECIDED TO RAISE TEMPERATURES ABOUT A CATEGORY ACROSS ALL
ZONES FOR THE FIRST THREE PERIODS. BELIEVE THAT ONE ROUND OF
CONVECTION...CURRENTLY UNDERWAY...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE PANHANDLES
THIS MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ROUND...ALONG
DRYLINE AND LOW-LEVEL BOUNDARIES...LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
SECOND ROUND WILL HAVE GREATER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE AS INSTABILITY
AND WIND FIELDS WILL BE STRONGER. SURPRISINGLY...AVN AND NGM HAVE
NEXT COLD FRONT PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN TX PANHANDLE BY MID DAY
TUESDAY. THE ETA REALLY DOESN/T SHOW THE PRESENCE OF A FRONT...MORE
A BACKING OF THE WINDS AS SURFACE LOW SINKS SOUTH ACROSS EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. NGM/AVN ARE MORE CHAOTIC WITH MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW. THIS
MAY BE A RESULT OF THE MODELS DIFFICULTY WITH EVOLUTION OF MID/UPPER
LEVEL WX PATTERN. INSTABILITY...BOUNDARIES...AND MID LEVEL LIFT
DOESN/T APPEAR TO BE GOING ANYWHERE...THEREFORE...SEE NO REASON TO
CHANGE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

FROM WEDNESDAY ON...CONFIDENCE IN MODEL SOLUTIONS TURNS SOUTH. AS
Y/DAY/S FORECASTER NOTED IN BRIEFING...PANHANDLES SHOULD BE UNDER A
RIDGE RIGHT NOW. SO...NO CHANGES TO THE EXTENDED.

PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...
AMA TE 082/058 083/057 085 64333
DHT TE 081/055 082/055 085 64333

.AMA...
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.

JH

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-271800-

TEXAS/OKLAHOMA PANHANDLES THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
645 AM CDT MON MAY 27 2002

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THE COMBINATION OF AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES...NUMEROUS LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES...
SUFFICIENT MOISTURE...SOME DAYTIME HEATING ALONG WITH A CORRESPONDING
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES TODAY
AND THIS EVENING. SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH FORM WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL TO BECOME SEVERE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS ACROSS ALL OF THE
OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS PANHANDLES SHOULD REMAIN ALERT AND BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE NEXT REGULARLY SCHEDULED THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED
AROUND 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

ANDRADE