Severe Thunderstorm Warning 326, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
210 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2001

MAIN FOCUS THIS PERIOD WILL BE WITH SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THEN WITH TEMPERATURES.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SHORTWAVE RESPONSIBLE FOR CURRENT
CONVECTION...OVER OK PUSHING EASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN MO AND AR.  NEXT
WAVE WHICH WAS PUSHING INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES WILL BE THE SYSTEM
TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.

CURRENT SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING...HOWEVER WITH MOISTURE STILL PLENTIFUL AND CAPES IN THE
1000-1500 J/KG RANGE WILL HOLD ON TO SCATTERED EVENING POPS.  WILL
HAVE GFE GRIDS CLEARING THINGS OUT LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT.

NOSE OF 120KT JET WILL DIVE SE INTO KS BY 12Z WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL
DIVERGENCE OVER THE CWA BY MIDDAY.  MODELS SHOWING GOOD LIFT WITH
THIS SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...HOWEVER MOISTURE DOES NOT
LOOK IMPRESSIVE UNTIL LATER IN THE DAY ACROSS EASTERN MO.  WILL
INCLUDE MENTION OF SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE WEST DESPITE
LOW MOS VALUES DUE TO DYNAMICS OF SYSTEM.  WILL KEEP POPS AROUND 30
HOWEVER.

STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE SURFACE FRONT AND SHOULD HAVE 20
TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED WINDS TOMORROW.  WINDS DIMINISH TO AROUND 10 BY
THE EVENING WITH A CLEARING SKY.  REMAINDER OF WEEK LOOKS TO STAY
COOL WITH NW FLOW ALOFT CONTINUING.  HIGH PRESSURE AND A DRY
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD KEEP SKY MOSTLY CLEAR DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.  MAY SEE NEXT HARD FROST ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AS
SURFACE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA.

ISC GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

PRELIMINARY FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION PURPOSES ONLY.
FCSTID = 5
SGF   58  66  36  56 /  30  30   0   0
JLN   59  67  40  59 /  30  30   0   0
UNO   61  72  37  56 /  30  30   0   0
VIH   58  66  34  54 /  30  30   0   0

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

LINDENBERG

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-241100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2001

THE THUNDERSTORMS WHICH PRODUCED HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL THIS
MORNING WERE EXITING SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW POINTS REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH BEHIND THESE STORMS
WITH THE MAIN FRONT STILL WELL TO THE WEST.  THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
WHICH HELPED TO PRODUCE THESE STORMS WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST THIS
EVENING.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON...MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF INTERSTATE 44.
SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREAT.  SPOTTERS COULD BE NEEDED LATER THIS
AFTERNOON FOR SEVERE WEATHER ACTIVATION.

.EXTENDED OUTLOOK...
THE MAIN FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING ANOTHER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA.  BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM...MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
240 PM CDT TUE OCT 23 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0230 PM    WARSAW                    MO   1 INCH HAIL
10/23/01   BENTON                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.