Severe Thunderstorm Warning 225, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 AM CDT THU JUL 5 2001

PROBLEM CONTINUES TO BE SPACIAL AND TEMPORAL FORECAST OF TSTMS TODAY.

RATHER MUDDY SITUATION TO FORECAST TODAY WITH REGARD TO MODEL SOLNS.

MODELS NOT ENTIRELY HANDLING SHORT WAVE TROFS VERY WELL...AS THERE
HAS BEEN NO RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY WITH ETA AND NGM. AVN HAS
MAINTAINED SOME CONSISTENCY ALTHOUGH AVN HAS DEPARTED FROM PREV RUNS
WITH HANDLING OF SHORT WAVE TROF...THAT WAS SUPPOSED TO MOVE INTO
SERN KANSAS LATE TODAY. 05/00Z RUN OF AVN FCSTS THIS SHORT WAVE TROF
TO PLUNGE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA INSTEAD. THEREFORE CHANGING THE
WHOLE FCST SCENARIO.

FORTUNATELY LATEST DVLPMNT OF TSTMS OVER THE CWFA HAS NARROWED
DOWN THE FEATURES OF IMPORTANCE TODAY.

1. TSTMS HAVE DVLPD ALONG 700MB COLD FRONT.
2. TSTMS HAVE DVLPD OVER CNTRL/ERN KS WITHIN AXIS OF 700-850MB
   THETA-E AXIS...PLUS 850MB WAA.
3. SFC LOW NR GBD WAS FOCUSING MSTR CONVRGC FROM LOW TO WRN MO.

THUS PCPN TODAY APPEARS TO BE DOMINATED BY LOW TO MID LEVEL
THERMODYNAMICS RATHER THAN UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. AS MENTIONED EARLIER
AVN PROGS SHORT WAVE TROF INTO WRN OK LATE TODAY...HOWEVER A WEAKER
EXTENSION OF SHORT WAVE TROF IS PROGGED TO EXTEND INTO SWRN MO THIS
AFTN. NOT SURE IF THIS SHORT WAVE EXTENSION IS REAL OR AN ARTIFACT
SO WILL BASE TIMING AND SPATIAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION ON THE ABOVE
MENTIONED THERMODYNAMIC PATTERN.

THEREFORE WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS TODAY OVER THE SRN TWO THIRDS
OF THE CWFA AND LOWEST POPS OVER THE NORTH.

AVN PROGS STRONG 850-700MB THETA-E CONVERGENCE OVER ERN/SERN KS
THRU 05/18Z. SO UPSTREAM FROM THE CWFA...CONDITIONS WILL BE VERY
FAVORABLE FOR TSTM GENERATION. STORMS WILL MOVE ESEWD. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT...SOME ISOLATED DIME AND NICKEL
HAIL EVENTS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

THERMODYNAMIC PATTERN WEAKENS CONSIDERABLY TOWARDS 06/06Z TONIGHT
AS 700MB RIDGE BUILDS INTO MO FROM THE WEST. SO LOOK FOR PCPN TO
TAPER OFF LATE TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE AFTER THURSDAY...UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL EXPAND AND COVER
MUCH OF THE PLAINS. CENTER OF HIGH FCST OVER OK BY SUNDAY. CORE OF
WARMEST TEMPS WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN HIGH PLAINS. SO CWFA WILL NOT
BE EXPERIENCING 100 DEGREE HEAT...BUT FCST TEMPS IN THE 90S ALONG
WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO 70...WILL CAUSE A HEAT INDEX OF AT
LEAST 105. THIS HEAT INDEX VALUE IS POSSIBLE DURING SAT/SUN/MON ...
A THREE DAY PERIOD. SINCE A HEAT INDEX OF 105 FOR AT LEAST THREE DAYS
AND AT LEAST 24 HOURS AWAY...AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH WILL HAVE TO
BE ISSUED FOR SAT/SUN/MON FOR THE ENTIRE CWFA.

NO CHANGES MADE TO EXTENDED FCST.

.SGF...
KS...EXCESSIVE LHEAT WATCH FOR SAT/SUN/MON
FOR ZONES...KSZ073-097-101.
MO...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH FOR SAT/SUN/MON
FOR ZONES...MOZ055>058-066>071-077>079-081>083-088>098-101>106.

D.STEINMETZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
344 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0300 AM    APPLETON CITY             MO   .88 INCH HAIL
07/05/01   ST.CLAIR                       REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

0314 AM    APPLETON CITY             MO   1 INCH HAIL
07/05/01   ST.CLAIR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
355 AM CDT THU JUL 05 2001

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0330 AM    HUMANSVILLE               MO   .88 INCH HAIL
07/05/01   POLK                           REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.