Severe Thunderstorm Warning 223, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
216 PM CDT WED JUL 4 2001

MAIN FOCUS WILL BE WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THE FIRST 2
PERIODS...THEN SHIFTING TO TEMPERATURES.

MCS PUSHED THROUGH THE CWA THIS MORNING WITH OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
PUSHING WELL INTO ARKANSAS.  THIS BOUNDARY HAS DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS DOWN IN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON.  NOT MUCH HAPPENING
YET ACROSS CWA IN THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM...DESPITE TEMPERATURES IN
THE UPPER 80S TO LOW 90S WITH DEW POINTS FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOW
70S.  MAY SEE SOME LATE AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT BUT WILL LIMIT POPS
TO 30 ACROSS EXTREME SOUTHERN MO AND INTO SE KS.

MAIN ACTION SHOULD SET UP TONIGHT ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS OF
NEBRASKA/WYOMING AS SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THETA E RIDGE AND AREA OF
HIGH INSTABLITY.  WILL LIKELY SEE ANOTHER MCS DEVELOP THERE...
PROPAGATING SE AND INTO SE KS/SW MO TOWARDS 12Z.  WILL CONTINUE 30
POPS IN SE KS/SW MO FOR LATE TONIGHT...INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT
DURING THE MORNING.  NORTHEAST CWA LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY.  MAY ALSO
SEE SOME AFTERNOON DEVELOPMENT ALONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM MCS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AND THEN INTO THE WEEKEND.  WITH VERY WARM 850 TEMPS NUDGING INTO
THE AREA AND 700 MB TEMPS OF 12 TO 14 DEGREES...SHOULD SEE HOT AND
DRY WEATHER SETTING UP.  FUTURE SHIFTS MAY NEED TO START
CONSIDERING HEAT ADVISORY.

PRELIMINARY CCF:
FCSTID = 05

SGF   70  87  69  90 /  30  30  0  10
JLN   71  89  71  93 /  30  50  0  10
UNO   70  90  68  91 /  30  30  0  10
VIH   68  88  68  89 /  20  20  0  10

LINDENBERG